581
FXUS01 KWBC 161912
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 17 2024 - 00Z Wed Jun 19 2024

...Flash flooding possible for parts of the Upper Midwest, along
with severe weather...

...Burgeoning heat wave for the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley
and Northeast starting Monday and continuing through the week...

...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible for the central and
northwest Gulf Coast through Tuesday...

...Late-season wet snow for the northern Rockies Monday and
Tuesday...

A very active pattern is in store for the Lower 48 this week which
will feature a variety of weather hazards:

--> Heavy rain and flash flooding: two areas are noted for the
potential for flash flooding/heavy rain along with severe weather.
The first over the Upper Midwest as multiple rounds of heavy rain
push through the Dakotas into Minnesota, where there is a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall (central MN) and a Slight Risk of
severe weather (per SPC) on Monday (Nebraska northward to MN). The
second will be near the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical moisture will
surge northward and westward from southern Louisiana westward into
Texas through Tuesday (and into Wednesday), including in and
around the Houston metro area. In addition, the National Hurricane
Center is monitoring the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for possible
future tropical development over the next few days.

--> Rising temperatures over the northeastern 1/4 of the CONUS
will approach and exceed record highs (including record warm
overnight lows) over the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast
Mon/Tue (and beyond). High temperatures will climb well into the
90s for many areas, with upper 90s possible in the lower
elevations in the East on Tuesday. Overnight lows may only drop
into the upper 60s to mid 70s, offering little relief from the
heat. The experimental HeatRisk outlooks shows Major to Extreme
levels for many areas, owing to the duration of the upcoming heat
wave. This is in stark contrast to the record cool temperatures
Sunday morning over parts of the Northeast.

--> Cool and snowy conditions will be impacting parts of the
Northern Rockies over the next couple of days as a broader upper
trough moves through the West. Temperatures will be well below
normal for mid-June, and even near record cold for the date. The
snow will be limited to higher elevations in Montana (especially
above 7000ft), but accumulating snow is likely even down to 5000ft
or so. This heavy and wet snow may cause some tree damage and
power outages, and will likely make travel difficult across some
of the passes.

--> Hot/dry/breezy conditions over parts of the Southwest will
result in a high fire danger over the next day or so, especially
over northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and into western New
Mexico. Critical fire conditions are forecast for these regions
per SPC, with a broader Elevated risk for much of the Four Corners
and even into the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valley on Monday.

Fracasso

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$