Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
864 FXUS66 KSTO 260900 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 200 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable, dry, and periodically breezy weather persists through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Slight warming trend expected early next week. && Key Points - Near normal temperatures throughout the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with only Minor HeatRisk expected across the area. - Potential for another warming trend by early next week. Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Saturday)... Lingering moisture continues to trend across the northern portion of interior NorCal this early morning, with RADAR showing a few scattered showers/virga moving to the east; however, any remaining showers or virga should move out of the area or dissipate soon. Once these trend down, dry and clear conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s in the Valley, in the 80s in the foothills, and in the 70s to 80s in the mountains. The slight cooling trend seen this week will continue into Thursday as an upper trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and further eastward. The coolest temperatures are expected Thursday, coming in at slightly below to near normal, before fluctuating around normal through the weekend. Breezy to occasionally gusty onshore winds will persist with the troughing pattern as well, keeping overnight temperatures relatively cool (especially in the vicinity of the Delta). && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... Over the weekend, ensembles are in general agreement that we`ll be caught between two ridges, with a trough over us as the high pressure builds to our west and east. Despite the trough, heights will begin to increase during this time, keeping temperatures near normal through the weekend. By Monday, the ridge over the Pacific begins to encroach on our area, increasing heights even further and beginning a slight warming trend. There is some uncertainty on the strength of the ridging, and how it will proceed after the initial build-up. Currently, in terms of impacts, the NBM has probabilities of Valley temperatures reaching 100 degrees or more at 50 to 80% on Monday, 75 to 95% on Tuesday, and 60 to 90% on Wednesday. Consequently, there is widespread Moderate HeatRisk currently expected Monday through Wednesday, with small areas of Major HeatRisk (primarily in and near the foothills) on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, on Monday there is a chance for breezy to gusty north and northwesterly winds, with strongest gusts in the northern and central Sacramento Valley in the afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly at or below 12 kts with lcl gusts to 25 kts in S Sac/N San Joaquin Vlys btwn 20z-05z. Vcnty of Delta SWly sfc wind 15-25 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$