Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
359 FXUS66 KSTO 202114 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 214 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .Synopsis... Dry weather is expected over interior NorCal throughout the weekend and into next week with an overall warming trend increasing high temperatures to above normal by early next week. This will result in Moderate HeatRisk on Monday and Tuesday, mainly in the Valley. Elevated Fire Weather Conditions early next week due to northerly winds and low humidity, primarily in the northern and western Sacramento Valley. && .Discussion... A gradual warm up continues today, with high temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 90s in the Valley, and 70s to 80s at higher elevations. This trend continues through the weekend and into early next week, as ridging progresses out over the west coast. By Monday, the NBM is showing an 30 to 60% probability of temperatures at or above 95 degrees in the Valley, though conditions should remain below 100 degrees. Additionally on Monday, the positioning of the ridge to the north with a trough to the southeast will cause a pressure gradient that will bring breezy to gusty northerly and easterly winds early next week. Winds will be strongest in the northern Sacramento Valley along the I-5 corridor, with the NBM showing a 40-75% probability of winds over 25 mph. This will coincide with low daytime relative humidities, generally around the mid teens to low 20% range. With these factors combined, Elevated Fire Weather Conditions are expected in the early part of next week in that area. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)... Elevated Fire Weather Conditions continue into Tuesday, though the period of most concern will be over after Monday night, as the upper level ridging begins to shift eastward on Tuesday. A couple of back to back short wave troughs are then expected to move through the Pacific NW on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing temperatures back to seasonable levels across interior NorCal. Friday, high pressure begins to build over the Desert SW, bringing elevated 500 mb heights to interior NorCal as well as the potential for slightly warming temperatures (though still remaining near normal). && .AVIATION... VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Surface wind mainly below 12 kts except in the vicinity of Delta, where southwesterly gust up to 20 kts possible, and in vicinity of Redding area where 20-25 kts northerly gusts possible. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$