450
FXUS62 KTAE 230535
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
135 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes
were made.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the period with
lows tonight dipping into the upper 60s to near 70 and highs
Thursday reaching into the lower 90s. There is a very small chance,
around 10 percent, of an isolated shower or storm along the sea
breeze Thursday afternoon.

An H5 ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico reaches into the
Southeast and will keep us warmer than normal for a while. At the
surface, a high off the Carolina coastline will mosey east later
tonight into Thursday, opening the door for the return of southerly
flow. This southerly flow will push dew points back into the 70s for
much of the area Thursday afternoon, leading to heat indices in the
middle 90s. Southerly flow will also increase precipitable water
values (PWATs) to the 1.4" to 1.7" range Thursday afternoon, which
is enough to possibly squeeze out an isolated shower or
thunderstorm. Chances are around 10 percent at this time, but some
of the convection allowing models (CAMs) do indicate the potential
along the sea breeze initially before slowly pushing inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

A stout subtropical ridge across the Gulf will make for very warm
conditions to close out the work week. Large-scale subsidence should
limit convection outside of possible isolated showers/thunderstorms
forced by the seabreeze with better rain chances staying to our
north. Forecast high temperatures are around 90 degrees away from
the immediate coast while lows warm from upper 60s Thursday night to
low 70s heading into Friday morning. These readings are few degrees
above normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Mainly hot weather defines Memorial Day Weekend as the subtropical
Gulf ridge axis extends NE into the TN Valley. Widespread low 90s
are forecast inland during that time with heat indices approaching
or slightly exceeding 100 degrees! Overnight minimums in the low 70s
will be common. However, model guidance depicts a somewhat subtle
shortwave rippling across the Lower MS Valley on Saturday that may
push some showers/thunderstorms south from Central AL/GA. Rain
chances reflect this possibility with 15-20% PoPs mainly
along/west of I-75. We could see increases in rain chances in
subsequent forecasts if confidence increases.

Convective potential will be on the rise by early next week in
response to a northern stream longwave trough weakening our heat
ridge. An attendant low-pressure system east of the Great Lakes
drags a front into the region Monday or Tuesday, likely paving the
way for unsettled/stormy weather. The environment should be plenty
unstable and moist with adequate shear to support possible strong to
severe storms. Increase cloud cover/storm activity yields slightly
cooler daytime temperatures (upper 80s/low 90s). Global models
appear to struggle with frontal passage near the end of the long-
term period. The ECMWF depicts dry conditions mid next week while
GFS has convection lingering into early Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Over the last 24 hours, weak low-level flow has veered from
easterly to southeasterly and southerly. This will favor ECP for
some mist or possibly fog as we get near sunrise, while VLD will
be less favored. Of course, low stratus and fog will quickly lift
about 2 hours after sunrise, with a SCT deck of fair weather
cumulus developing in the thermal lift of the day ahead.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

An additional nocturnal surge of southeasterly winds predominantly
east of the mouth of the Apalachicola river is expected tonight.
These winds will predominantly remain at Small Craft Exercise
Caution levels during this nocturnal surge. For marine zones west of
the mouth of the Apalachicola river, winds are expected to remain
much calmer at around 5-10 knots out of the southeast. As high
pressure slowly pushes south, winds will become southerly to
southwesterly, while also remaining around 5-10 knots through the
weekend. Overall, boating conditions will remain tranquil through
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low the next couple of days with
warm to hot conditions expected into the weekend. A very isolated
shower or storm cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze the next
couple of afternoons. Some storms may sag south from Central AL/GA
on Saturday. Better rain chances are forecast to arrive later
Monday into Tuesday for much of the region.

Mostly good dispersion values are expected away from the
immediate coast through Friday with MinRH values between 40 to 55
percent. Pockets of high afternoon dispersions are possible
Thursday and Friday across the northernmost districts, then look
to focus across the I-75 corridor on Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 359 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Regional rivers to include the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla,
Choctawhatchee, and St. Marks will continue to remain in minor flood
for the next couple of days before dropping below flood stage. No
significant rainfall is expected in the next week, with roughly
widespread rainfall totals of 0.25 to 0.50 inches forecast. These
rainfall totals will not be significant enough to produce any
additional flooding concerns across the area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  68  90  71 /  10   0  10   0
Panama City   86  72  85  74 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        89  68  89  71 /  10   0  20  10
Albany        90  68  88  70 /  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      92  68  91  70 /  10   0  10   0
Cross City    91  68  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  72  84  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Bunker