808
FXUS62 KTAE 160630
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
230 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast has
contributed to northeasterly surface winds across the area and
will continue to do so today. This has pushed a frontal boundary
offshore across our western waters, which will lead to reduced
rain chances across most of the region today. However, the Florida
panhandle will still be close enough to the front and deeper
moisture to result in 40-60 percent chances of showers and maybe a
thunderstorm. Elsewhere, rain chances will decrease to less than
20 percent the further northeast one goes across the forecast
area.

Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with
overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern
counties to the low 70s farther south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

An upper level low over the southeastern US will be the main
influence for our weather through the short term. We can expect
westerly/southwesterly flow. This would allow for a few showers
and thunderstorms to develop Tuesday along the Panhandle coast
during the afternoon hours. The low will shift eastward, moving
the better rain chances to the Southeast Big Bend for Wednesday.
PoPs range at around 40-50 for locations south of I-10 on Tuesday,
and 30-40 percent on Wednesday. There is a Marginal (level 1 of
4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday covering the FL
Panhandle. This is mainly due to already saturated conditions and
the rain chances with forecast PWATs of 1.5-2" that could lead to
heavy rainfall. Our AL and GA counties average about 20%-30% PoPs
for both days. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s for
the short term with overnight lows in the upper 60s/low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The upper level low will be lifting to the north but the overall
trough will still linger over the region for the start of the long
term period. At the surface, high pressure will build in keeping
the area dry with northerly flow. PoPs will be below 20% with the
best chances for rain along and south of I-10. Temperatures will
start with highs in the low 90s, then cool to the 80s as we head
into the weekend due to the high pressure and northerly flow of
"cooler" air. Overnight lows will remain steady in the upper
60s/low 70s.

During the weekend, the global models fall out of agreement as to
what becomes of the upper level trough. It is possible for the
trough to retreat back south and cause cloudy/rainy conditions for
our region later in the weekend. We will continue to monitor its
progress.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to drop into the MVFR to IFR range early
this morning due to low ceilings with light to moderate easterly
winds. MVFR to VFR conditions are set to return this afternoon with
the best chance for a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm near
ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Winds will be generally be light across the waters over the next
several days, but given the presence of a stationary front over
our waters and waves of low pressure, wind direction will be
variable through the next few days. This front will also keep the
weather rather unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms
but drier conditions could develop across area waters by the
latter part of the upcoming week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent
wetting rains and a moist airmass in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Heavy rainfall accumulations are not expected over the next
several days, however due to the already saturated ground, the WPC
has placed the FL Panhandle in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall today and Tuesday as it wouldn`t take much to
produce flooding. For our rivers, we do have a few along the ACF
that are in Action Stage. Local streams may rise if heavy storms
develop over them however, none of our mainstem rivers are
forecast to reach Flood stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  69  86  70 /  30  10  30  10
Panama City   83  72  85  72 /  60  30  50  20
Dothan        81  68  84  68 /  30  10  30  10
Albany        82  66  84  67 /  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      82  68  86  69 /  10  10  20  10
Cross City    85  71  89  71 /  30  10  30  10
Apalachicola  82  74  83  73 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery