381
FXUS62 KTAE 230151
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
951 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Nudged temps down a few degrees over the next few hours with
radiative cooling allowing for slightly quicker cooling than
forecast. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is still on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep things pretty status-quo
through Monday afternoon. Temperatures will settle in the upper 60s
to lower 70s around the region for lows. Daytime highs climb into
the lower to middle 90s Monday afternoon. A little added surface
moisture should lead to heat indices generally between 97 to 102 at
times Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Ridging will continue through the duration of
the short term with persistent dry and pleasant conditions remaining
in place on Tuesday. Large scale subsidence as ridging settles in
will keep skies clear with little chances for rain all day with
light and variable winds out of the east. Very low chances for rain
do exist over our coastal Florida Panhandle counties in the
afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The extended forecast continues to remain uncertain
as we pass midweek and becomes even more uncertain as we approach
the weekend. However, ridging is expected to persist through
Wednesday evening with precipitation chances increasing gradually
into the weekend as tropical moisture begins to push into the
region. Additionally, an easterly surge of wind will develop as
early as midday Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens perhaps
resulting in advisory conditions over our waters.

Similar to yesterday, guidance continues to diverge notably as we
approach Thursday and move into the weekend regarding tropical
development and the upper level pattern. Models indicate that a deep
upper trough may form over the central united states, as was shown
yesterday. This upper level pattern would be supportive of a
tropical system moving north through the Gulf of Mexico, IF a system
were to develop in time. Uncertainty still remains quite high
regarding placement of the aforementioned trough and the exact
location and time that a system *could* develop, and any change with
these variables would have notable impacts regarding what could
happen 7+ days from today. Additionally, guidance has sped up with
respect to a system forming which, if it continues on this trend,
will drastically change the forecast going into the weekend. IF any
tropical impacts were to occur, the timeframe would be late this
week into the weekend with Thursday appearing possible at the very
earliest. Currently, the NHC has highlighted an area with a 70%
chance of tropical formation over the northwest Caribbean up to the
Gulf of Mexico through the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with light and
variable winds. Some patchy fog is possible near VLD around
09-12z, which may reduce vsbys to MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Light to gentle breezes out of the east-southeast will
persist through Wednesday before moderate easterly surges develop
over our waters. On Wednesday, attention turns to the potential for
tropical development lifting north toward our area, though
uncertainty remains high at this time with respect to the track of
the storm. Advisory or tropical storm conditions appear possible
across our waters beginning as early as Wednesday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Fire weather concerns remain very low at this time. Dry conditions
and light winds are expected the next couple of days thanks to high
pressure over the region. Pockets of higher dispersions are possible
across Georgia and Alabama are possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to
higher mixing heights.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Dry conditions are expected to continue through midweek with
no hydrological concerns at the moment. Chances for rain return
midweek as tropical moisture begins to enter the area with
chances for tropical conditions accompanying this as well. Copious
amounts of rain appear possible, though there is high uncertainty
regarding the track with changes likely with the forecast. If the
storm were to move through our area, riverine flooding and
areal/flash flooding would be likely given recent rains over the
forecast area.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  92  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   74  91  74  90 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        72  93  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        72  93  72  91 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      70  92  70  91 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    67  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  87  76  86 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Worster