180
FXUS62 KTAE 270944
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
544 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...Tropical Storm Helene Pulling Away From the Area...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Hurricane Helene has exited the forecast area this morning, with
winds gradually diminishing and rain ending. Water levels along the
coast slowly return to normal through the day today as well.
Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon as
recovery efforts get underway. Low tonight will generally in the
upper  60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Remains of Helene will merge with upper low across the southeastern
states by Saturday. The upper low will linger over the Tennessee
River Valley through the weekend with a trailing boundary across the
Florida Pensinsula. This will keep the weather mostly dry and rather
warm, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, boundary
may lift north just enough by late Sunday to support a few showers
and storm across the far southeastern Big Bend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Aforementioned boundary will lift north a bit more by Monday, with
scattered showers pushing farther into the Big Bend and far southern
Georgia. However, overall coverage should be quite limited. The
upper low will eventually weaken and lift out by the middle of the
week. Boundary will likely linger over the coastal waters and
possibly the SE Big Bend, but building ridge aloft should keep the
weather mostly dry elsewhere. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

At 0435z, the northern eyewall of Hurricane Helene is approaching
KVLD. Look for hurricane force gusts there in the next couple
hours. Winds a bit further from its center have been gusting in
the 40-60kt range. MVFR-IFR ceilings and reduced visibilities in
rain/bands will be prevalent for several more hours. As Helene
continues a northward track overnight, expect gradually improving
conditions from north-to-south with speeds gradually tapering down
and rainfall shifting further inland. Anticipate most terminals to
return to VFR in the early-mid morning hours Friday, though still
expecting some 15-25kt wind gusts out of the southwest into the
afternoon before further diminishing toward sunset.  47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Winds and seas will slowly subside today as Helene pulls away from
the region. The tropical storm warning remains in place over the
eastern waters this morning, with a Small Craft Advisory over the
western waters. Winds and seas should drop below all headline
criteria by Saturday. Conditions over the waters are then expected
to remain mostly benign, outside of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Hurricane Helene has exited the forecast area this morning, with
winds gradually diminishing and rain ending. Water levels along the
coast slowly return to normal through the day today as well.
Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon as
recovery efforts get underway. Low tonight will generally in the
upper  60s to lower 70s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 538 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Area rivers will be on the rise for the coming days (and sometimes
weeks) following the rains from before and during Helene. The
Ochlockonee and Sopchoppy will be first on the list with the more
rapid rises. At the moment, Sopchoppy looks to crest just under
major flood, with Concord and Altha (on the Chipola) headed
towards moderate flood. Additional rivers will approach flood
stage through the weekend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  68  86  69 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   83  75  85  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        82  65  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        82  66  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      85  67  87  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    87  73  88  73 /  10   0  10  10
Apalachicola  83  75  84  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ019-028-029-034-115-118-127-128-
     134.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ027-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon
     for FLZ112-114.

GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ124>131-144>148-158>161.

AL...None.
GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ750-752-
     770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp