Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
360 FXUS62 KTAE 201712 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 112 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 No changes were made to this mornings forecast, as it looks to remain on track. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Overnight satellite and surface observations depict a tropical wave or inverted trough moving west across the FL Peninsula. This feature is accompanied by rich moisture with Precipitable Water of 1.6-1.9" and attendant showers. Such values support deep convection and therefore appreciable rain chances for today. However, the main limiting factor on shower/thunderstorm coverage will be mid-level dry air, evident on water vapor imagery and the 0Z KTAE sounding. The latter shows a strong cap in the 800-700 mb level. Best PoP is along/south of the I-10 corridor, especially over the FL Panhandle this afternoon at ~40-60%. Any inland precipitation comes to an end by this evening. Otherwise, expect a warm/muggy and continued breezy east winds, particularly near the Forgotten Coast where a Wind Advisory is in effect for coastal Franklin County until 8AM EDT. Temperatures peak in the low 90s while lows bottom out from the upper 60s to low 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 As of 2AM EDT, the National Hurricane Center continues to highlight a disturbance about 250 mi east of the northernmost Bahamas that has a low chance (30%) of tropical development over the next 2-7 days. Regardless of formation, this system is expected to move WNW towards the NE FL/SE GA coast early on Friday, and usher another, albeit likely greater round of showers/thunderstorms to kick off the weekend. Thereafter, model guidance suggests the disturbance`s associated circulation gets temporarily "trapped" inland within a stout mid- upper ridge extending across the Southern US into the Western Atlantic. As a result, elevated PoP remains in the forecast through Saturday. High temperatures remain mostly in the low 90s, but minimums surge back to the mid 70s thanks to a moist airmass in place. Lastly, a more relaxed pressure gradient should ease the breeziness we`ve been experiencing the past couple days. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Unsettled weather appears likely during the long-term period as lingering tropical moisture interacts with a frontal boundary sagging south. The latter stems from an amplifying upper trough east of the Great Lakes whose axis initially cascades down the Eastern Seaboard early next week. In response, the aforementioned ridge retrogrades westward, thus providing an avenue for SW flow to moisten our air column. This synoptic pattern supports daily elevated chances for showers/thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. Temperatures will still be plenty warm to hot with 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows each day. The former may run "cooler" depending on where the axis of greatest precipitation/cloud cover focuses. Those details are challenging to pin down this far out. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 MVFR restrictions are being observed at DHN and ECP this afternoon; however, they should lift to VFR levels as dry air from the east continues to push into the region later this afternoon and into the evening hours. All other terminals are seeing VFR conditions at this time. Some vicinity showers are currently being observed at or near all terminals this afternoon. These showers look to continue for the next few hours, with ECP possibly seeing a rumble of thunder or two through the late evening. Skies look to clear through the overnight period before an easterly surge of moisture pushes into the region during the late morning and early afternoon on Friday. This could lead to MVFR CIGs developing at VLD, but it is too uncertain, and just beyond the current TAF window to include at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting east winds around 20 kts with 6-ft seas and dominant period of 8-9 seconds early this morning. An overnight ASCAT pass also showed a large area of sustained easterlies of about 25 kts or more over Apalachee Bay From CWF Synopsis...A tight pressure gradient induced by Tropical Storm Alberto in the Bay of Campeche and a Mid-Atlantic High maintains advisory level east winds across the waters. Although winds gradually relax today and tonight, lingering elevated seas will still pose a hazard to small craft into Friday morning. For this weekend, a tropical disturbance brings about increased rain chances, followed by a front ushering unsettled weather next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the best chances along/south of the I-10 corridor. Lightning appears most likely over the FL Panhandle today. Otherwise, expect warm/muggy conditions with continued breezy east winds. The latter prompts widespread high dispersions. For Friday, rain chances increase further with the westward approach of a tropical disturbance from NE FL/SE GA coast. The highest PoP is across the FL Big Bend into South-Central GA. High afternoon dispersions are forecast once more. Lingering moisture supports additional showers/thunderstorms on Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Wetter weather is upon us over the next several with flooding potentially becoming a concern this weekend and early next week. The latest WPC Day 1-7 QPF amounts paint 2+ inches over the Suwannee Valley where a tropical disturbance aims to move inland from the NE FL/SE GA coast, followed by a front sagging down the Eastern Seaboard. Widespread 1 inch is forecast elsewhere during that same time frame. Of course, localized higher values are always possible beneath heavy rain from thunderstorms. In terms of rivers, all basins are currently in good shape. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 93 75 94 / 10 60 40 60 Panama City 72 93 77 91 / 10 40 30 40 Dothan 68 92 73 94 / 0 20 10 50 Albany 68 93 73 95 / 0 40 20 40 Valdosta 71 91 73 95 / 10 70 30 60 Cross City 71 91 73 94 / 10 80 40 70 Apalachicola 74 89 77 88 / 10 50 40 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...IG3 SHORT TERM...IG3 LONG TERM....IG3 AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...IG3 FIRE WEATHER...IG3 HYDROLOGY...IG3