Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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512 FXUS62 KTAE 191842 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 242 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Alberto in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and high pressure over the western Atlantic will keep winds elevated through the near term. In addition, a weak low- to mid-level vort max will pass over the area tonight into Thursday morning. This will bring increasing clouds to the area late tonight into tomorrow. Thus, with the winds staying elevated and potential for increasing clouds, have gone above guidance for tonight. Lows will be in the mid-70s for most locations. A bit more moisture sneaks into our area tomorrow with PWATs creeping back up to near 1.8 inches, which may help kick up a few showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-10 tomorrow afternoon. The easterly flow will pin the sea breeze near the coast and result in the highest rain chances near the Emerald Coast and in the southeast Big Bend, but these are only 40 percent at most. Mid-level dry air remains present though, so if storms can develop, gusty winds could be possible in the strongest storms. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The period begins with persistent easterly flow with a ridge parked across the Mid Atlantic States out into the Northwestern Atlantic. To the southeast of this feature is a tropical wave that will be moving through the Bahamas on Thursday evening and into the Florida Peninsula on Friday. This will result in a relaxing pressure gradient, but also signal the increase of moisture and rain chances as we head into Friday, especially across the eastern half of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 With the remnant of the tropical wave passing west of the region on Saturday afternoon, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will shift considerably as a trough moves through the Great Lakes states on Sunday and pushes a cold front toward the Gulf Coast. While it is unlikely this front will make it through our region, it will get close enough to combine with a poleward surge of tropical moisture Sunday and beyond to lead to an above normal stretch of rain chances through the remainder of the forecast period. As a result, PoP/sky grids were adjusted accordingly to account for the increased moisture with higher rain chances overnight in the southerly flow over the marine area and then an earlier start to convection in the late morning/early afternoon over the inland areas. Some guidance, including the NBM, was indicating afternoon maxT values in the upper 90s. Given the likelihood of higher rain chances, have lowered these values about 2-3 degrees across the board and as a result, this has led to somewhat lower afternoon heat indices. While Sunday through Tuesday will still be warm, the current forecast keeps any advisory level heat indices (108 degrees or greater) out of the forecast for now. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 VFR conditions will continue with a SCT/BKN deck around 040-050. Breezy easterly winds around 12 to 17 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt continue through the afternoon, dying off in the evening and overnight, and increasing again tomorrow morning. VFR/MVFR cigs will be possible tomorrow morning through 18z. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 The tight pressure gradient will keep winds and seas at advisory levels into Friday morning until the tropical wave coming in from the Atlantic reaches the Gulf waters and results in a relaxing pressure gradient. Thereafter, the gradient will relax and winds will shift to more of a southerly component with gradually relaxing seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 East to northeast transport winds of 10-20 mph will continue through Friday before becoming more southeasterly to southerly Saturday. This combined with high mixing heights will lead to good to excellent dispersions each afternoon. Min RH values will drop into the 40s each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are possible Thursday, mainly south of I-10. Rain chances increase for Friday and Saturday. No significant fire weather concerns are expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 There are no immediate hydrology concerns until the passage of the tropical wave on Friday into Saturday when rain chances really begin to increase. That, along with the increase in deep tropical moisture will lead to conditions where locally heavy rainfall is possible which could lead to flash flood concerns, especially by Monday and beyond. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 93 71 93 / 0 20 10 50 Panama City 76 92 73 93 / 10 40 20 40 Dothan 72 91 69 93 / 0 10 0 30 Albany 72 92 69 93 / 0 10 0 30 Valdosta 73 92 71 92 / 0 10 10 50 Cross City 73 94 71 93 / 0 30 30 60 Apalachicola 79 89 75 88 / 20 40 30 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Young SHORT TERM...Godsey LONG TERM....Godsey AVIATION...Young MARINE...Godsey FIRE WEATHER...Young HYDROLOGY...Godsey