715
FXUS62 KTAE 201739
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
139 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

No changes to the forecast this morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Another beautiful day on tap for the region as high pressure settles
in overhead. Dry and warm conditions are expected with light
northeasterly winds under mostly sunny skies. A bit of patchy fog
will be possible along the I-75 corridor this morning, but dense fog
is not anticipated due to conditions being drier than yesterday.
Highs today are forecast in the mid 80s to low 90s with lows tonight
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge build into the region
over the weekend with light east and northeasterly flow expected.
Dry air and the broad subsidence over the region will keep rain
chances out of the forecast. Expect temperatures above normal and in
the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Long term guidance remains in good agreement through much of the
period. The upper level ridge from the weekend is expected to
continue spreading east across the northern Gulf. This should keep
temperatures warm and rain chances low to near zero into at least
Tuesday and possibly longer depending on how the long range pattern
evolves. Temperatures will continue to remain in the low 90s through
Tuesday and possibly into later next week.

After Tuesday is when long range models begin to diverge very
quickly. Part of the reason is due to the upper level pattern over
the continental US and another point of uncertainty is what, if
anything, becomes of a potential tropical disturbance across the
Caribbean or southern Gulf. The potential disturbance that many
ensemble members have indicated next week show the complex pattern
that is often known as the Central American Gyre (CAG). Disturbances
that originate out of the CAG typically have large uncertainty
compared to tropical waves because they form from a very broad area
of low pressure. This broad area of low pressure will typically have
smaller areas of even lower pressure that rotate around the larger
Gyre and are driven by stronger areas of showers and thunderstorms.
Models typically have a hard time identifying which one of these
smaller areas of low pressure rotating in the Gyre could become a
tropical disturbance. So when you combine the large uncertainty
in the Gyre along with uncertainty in the upper level pattern over
the continental US it`s one reason why ensembles next week still
show possibilities from Texas to the East Coast of Florida.
Additionally, all these possibilities are assuming one system even
forms at all.

So summing the long term outlook up, we`ll be warm and dry through
Tuesday but our eyes remain on tropics. By early next week, we`ll
likely begin to get a better idea if we need to watch for anything
moving up out of the Caribbean, but for now enjoy the sunshine and
don`t forget the sunscreen.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure continues to build over the TAF sites through the
period. Winds NNE to ENE though the period, with the exception of
ECP due to sea-breeze shifting the wind to WSW late this aftn.
VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites, except for another
brief period of restrictions in fog at VLD on Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Winds remain light and variable and seas remain low through today.
This weekend, easterly winds will become established and hold
through the middle of next week. This will lead to an increase of
seas of 1 to 3 feet, with the larger waves being found offshore.
Cautionary conditions may be observed next week during the
overnight hours if we`re able to get the stronger easterly surges.
Dry weather prevails through the weekend, with showers and storms
starting to creep back into the forecast early or mid next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry conditions and relatively light winds are expected for the next
couple of days with high pressure over the area. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Dry conditions look to persist through the weekend and into early
next week. At this time there are no hydrology concerns; however,
it is worth noting that the CPC has above normal chances for
precipitation in the 8-10 day forecast. This is likely due to the
anticipated development of a tropical cyclone in either the
northwest Caribbean or southeast Gulf. At this time it is too
early to determine what, if any type, of hydrology impacts we
might see. Especially since there is high uncertainty with the
ensemble and global models of where this system could go. Stay
tuned to the forecast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  70  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   90  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        90  70  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        89  69  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      88  68  88  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    90  69  90  68 /  10   0  10   0
Apalachicola  87  74  87  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...KR