Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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024 FXUS62 KTAE 201856 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 256 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 The deep layer flow becomes increasingly anticyclonic as high pressure continues to build into the region. Late this afternoon and evening, a slight chance of showers in the Southeast FL Big Bend, mainly coastal Taylor and Dixie Counties. Sprinkles are possible further northwest along the Nature and Forgotten Coasts of the FL Big Bend. There is just enough moisture w/ PWAT around 1.5" and convergence from a sea-breeze pinned close to the coast, where satellite shows more robust cu development. Dry weather tonight and Saturday. With more subsidence and less available moisture, the sea-breeze is not expected to produce precip on Saturday. Conditions are favorable for the development of fog overnight into Saturday morning, mainly from Southwest GA into portions of the FL Big Bend until around 9 AM ET. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs on Saturday in the upper 80s to lower 90s, in general a couple degrees above late September averages. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Ridging is expected to persist through the entirety of the short term with a dry and calm pattern over the region as large scale subsidence takes hold. Light east-northeast flow will persist with highs in the low 90s each afternoon. Dewpoints may also drop into the mid to upper 60s on Sunday bringing pleasant weather for outdoor activities. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Upper level ridging should continue to remain in place through the beginning of the long term keeping the region dry and sunny through midweek. Daytime highs will generally be confined to the upper 80s to low 90s each day with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heads immediately turn to the models notably diverging with the arrival of midweek regarding the possibility of a tropical disturbance within the extended forecast. Two key players regarding the uncertainty are the Central American Gyre (CAG) and the upper level pattern following when the long range models develop the tropical disturbance. The CAG is a large area of low pressure, creating some difficulty within models resolving where tropical waves may form within it / which wave may become the dominant wave. Regarding the upper level pattern, the timing and location of upper troughing occurring over the Gulf Coast states will serve to steer the storm that some of these models develop. A faster trough ejection could steer the storm further west, while a slower trough ejection could steer the storm further east. Another factor will be how quickly the storm forms with respect to when the trough(s) come through, and could change the forecast entirely. All of these contributing factors are yielding high uncertainty with the development over the next week and significant changes to the extended forecast are expected as a result. Currently, the NHC has a 50% chance of formation within the next seven days highlighted extending from the northeastern Caribbean to the southern Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 High pressure continues to build over the TAF sites through the period. Winds NNE to ENE though the period, with the exception of ECP due to sea-breeze shifting the wind to WSW late this aftn. VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites, except for another brief period of restrictions in fog at VLD on Saturday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Generally light east-northeasterly winds will prevail through the forecast period through the middle of next week with calm seas generally around 1 to 2 feet, increasing to 3 to 4 feet by midweek as easterlies become more established. PoPs begin to increase once again over our waters around Tuesday to Wednesday with some showers thunderstorms appearing possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 High pressure builds into the region with northeast winds continuing this weekend. Dry weather is on tap during this time frame with minimum afternoon RH values dipping into the mid-40s to mid-50s away from the coast. Fair dispersions are in order over the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Dry conditions are expected to continue this weekend through midweek with no hydrological concerns at the moment. Currently, the CPC has above normal probabilities for precipitation for our area in their extended (8-10 day) forecast likely due to anticipated development of a tropical disturbance. As of now, it is too early to discern any hydrological impacts regarding our area given high uncertainty. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 89 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 72 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 70 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 69 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 69 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 69 91 69 91 / 10 10 0 10 Apalachicola 74 86 74 86 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...LF MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...Worster