345
FXUS62 KTAE 170137
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
937 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

PoPs have been nudged down across the region given current trends
as precip struggles to form under northeast flow. Precip has
generally remained offshore or just outside of our area across the
western FL Panhandle. This trend is expected to continue
throughout the overnight period.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

PTC 8 is expected to move ashore the Carolina coast later this
afternoon then meander around the southern Appalachians through
Tuesday. A stationary boundary located in our Gulf waters will
remain positioned there tonight then move inland Tuesday with
southerly to southwesterly winds surge across the area. This will
also focus convection mainly along and south of I10 around the front
in the afternoon hours Tuesday. Thick cloud cover today will
transition to more breaks overnight tonight with some sun Tuesday,
allowing highs to reach back into the 80s; some upper 80s through
the Florida Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The remnants of PTC8 will be meandering across the southeast US
while it becomes embedded in a larger upper level trough over the
southeastern portions of the US on Tuesday night. A decaying
frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the north
and western portions of our forecast area into Wednesday.

Showers and storms from Tuesday afternoon should slowly diminish
into the overnight hours and as the trough slowly pushes east into
Wednesday night. Another round of showers and storms is possible
during Wednesday afternoon, but with drier mid-level air beginning
to move into the northwest parts of the forecast area, rain
chances will largely be confined to our Florida counties.

With flow out of the southwest ahead of the front, this should
help bring sunnier skies to the region so high temperatures will
jump back into the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Long term pattern becomes a little more uncertain by the end of
the week and into next weekend as the upper level pattern becomes
highly amplified. Main uncertainty revolves around how quick
precipitation chances return to the forecast after we dry out and
warm up for a few days to end the week. Some solutions cut off the
upper level low from the short term period while others remain
more progressive and have an upper level ridge build across the
area during the upcoming weekend. Regardless, there is good
confidence that we`ll dry out to end the week and into the
upcoming weekend.

Looking further into next week some solutions indicate the
possibility of tropical moisture lifting north out of the
Caribbean. Whether this turns into tropical trouble is way too
early to determine at this time, but it`s something worth
monitoring late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Mostly VFR conds prevail this TAF period. The lone exception may
be at VLD where a TEMPO group for MVFR vsbys is maintained from
9-12Z. Low cigs to IFR are also psbl, but not confident to
explicitly fcst. Light east to NE winds turn more south to SW
tmrw. The FL terminals have the best potential to be impacted by
seabreeze convection, so have aftn VCTS with PROB30s for -TSRA at
ECP/TLH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week with
rain chances decreasing after Wednesday. North and northeasterly
flow is reestablished later in the week and into the weekend and
this could lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent
wetting rains and a moist airmass in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Heavy rainfall accumulations are not expected over the next
several days, but light amounts up to 0.5 or an inch are possible
across the Florida Panhandle. For our rivers, we do have a few
along the ACF that are in Action Stage. Local streams may rise if
heavy storms develop over them however, none of our mainstem
rivers are forecast to reach Flood stage through the next 7 to 10
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  86  70  87 /  10  40  10  30
Panama City   70  85  72  86 /  30  50  20  20
Dothan        66  84  68  86 /  10  30  10  20
Albany        64  85  68  86 /   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      66  86  69  87 /   0  20  10  20
Cross City    69  89  71  89 /  10  30  10  40
Apalachicola  72  83  74  84 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Gonzalez
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs