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FNUS72 KTAE 261137
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Spot Forecast for SMR Turkey Foot...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
737 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...West to southwest transport winds around 10-15 mph
will continue over the next several days. Mixing heights near the
coast will remain around 3500 ft AGL in the afternoon with afternoon
dispersions peaking near 50. Afternoon sea breeze activity will lead
to thunderstorm development and erratic changes in local wind direction
and speed. Min RH values will fall into the 50s in North FL today.
Dangerous heat continues as well with highs well into the 90s and
heat index values of 105-110.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly Cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms this morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    morning, then increasing to 50 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1000, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Temperature.........79 at ignition...Max 94.
RH..................97 percent at ignition...Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to 3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 49.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  36  38  38  31  29  40  42  43  44
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............10  10  10  20  30  40  40  50  50  40
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............79  85  88  92  93  94  94  93  92  92
RH..............97  80  72  60  56  56  56  58  60  60
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   3   5   5   5   7   8   7
20 FT wind gust.3   3   5   7   8   8   8   10  10  12
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  10  10  10  10  10  10  12  14  15
Dispersion......18  26  34  42  43  43  46  47  50  51
LVORI...........5   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2000, then 1-8 strikes.
Temperature.........Min 77.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....45 decreasing to 10 early in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........46  61  55  43  42  44  24  26  20  23  31  27
Weather cov.....SCH SCH                             SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW                              RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH                             SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20
LAL.............3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
Temp............91  91  88  86  83  81  80  80  79  79  78  78
RH..............62  62  70  79  80  85  91  91  91  93  94  95
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  8   7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  15  14  12  12  12  12  12  10  10
Dispersion......48  41  14  12  10  9   7   7   7   6   6   6
LVORI...........2   2   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   6   6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly Cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning,
                    then Showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 0800, then 9-15 strikes until
                    1400, then 16-25 strikes.
Temperature.........Max 92.
RH..................Min 58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Dispersion index....6 increasing to 54.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........22  27  37  36  37  43  47  51  56  57  59  60
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY
CWR.............20  30  50  50  50  50  50  50  60  60  60  60
LAL.............2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Temp............78  77  80  85  88  90  92  92  91  90  90  91
RH..............91  97  91  77  70  64  58  58  60  62  62  60
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   3   5   5   5   7   7   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   7   8   8   8   10  10  10  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.1 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  12  13  14  15  16  16  15  15
Dispersion......6   6   21  30  40  51  56  51  51  51  55  53
LVORI...........6   6   4   3   3   2   1   2   2   2   1   1

$$

Forecaster...Godsey
Requested by...J. Havird
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416731.0/TAE
.DELDT 06/26/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joshua_havird@fws.gov