Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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736 FXUS62 KTBW 241854 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 254 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Weather will remain quiet for the rest of the day with only a few showers across the area. However, things will start to change tomorrow as Tropical Storm Helene start to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Helene is expected to enter the southern Gulf by Wednesday evening. As it does so we will see an increase in moisture and shower activity along with winds. Thursday Helene will be pushing through the Gulf of Mexico with a potential land fall Thursday evening in the Big Bend region as a major hurricane. Currently forecast and models keep the storm off our coast however this is expected to be a very big storm. Models are showing it could potential be in the 90th percentile is size compared to other hurricanes. This means effects from this system will be felt well outside of the center of this storm. The main threat to this storm will be storm surge. Surge values along SW Florida is expected to be between 3 to 5 feet. In West Central Florida and Tampa Bay between 5 to 8 feet and 10 to 15 feet along the Nature Coast. Due to the quick movement of this storm rainfall should be lower then Debby however 3 to 6 inches is expected with locally higher amounts of 10 inches will be possible. For more specific information for your local area please check out our Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) and our Tropical Page on our webpage. After Helene has passed we will continue to see southwesterly flow across the area for Friday through Monday. This will result in hot and humid conditions with PoPs in the 60 to 70 percent range each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the day, though brief isolated/scattered TSRA will be possible at times through this evening. Otherwise, wind speeds and rain chances will increase area-wide by Wednesday morning into the afternoon as Tropical Storm Helene moves into the Gulf of Mexico. This will result in ESE winds on Wednesday around 10-12 kts and gusts over 20 kts and flight restrictions at times due to increasing TSRA through the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Winds and seas will be quite for the rest of today. However Tropical Storm Helene is expected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday as it starts to strengthen. We will see winds and seas increase throughout the day on Wednesday. Helene will start to push into our water on Thursday as a major hurricane. We will see dangerous to life threatening boating conditions with wave getting above 25 feet in our offshore waters with hurricane force winds. By Friday Helene will be pushing into Georgia but winds will stay gusty out of the southwest with gusts up to 30 knots. By the weekend winds look to subside to around 10 knots out of the southwest. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Tropical Storm Helene will keep humidity and convection in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 78 90 77 / 20 0 70 90 FMY 91 78 87 77 / 30 20 80 90 GIF 92 76 89 77 / 10 0 60 80 SRQ 93 78 90 76 / 20 10 80 90 BKV 93 74 90 74 / 10 0 60 80 SPG 92 81 88 79 / 20 10 80 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-DeSoto- Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee- Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter. Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Hurricane Watch for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco- Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy- Inland Pasco-Pinellas. Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy- Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound- Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM. Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana