Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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541 FXUS62 KTBW 221749 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 149 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weather remains pretty quiet across our area for Sunday and early next week. Ridging will remain to our north but will drift from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. PWs will remain at or below 1.5. The lower PW along with ridging remaining to our north will limit shower acitivty each day with only isolated chances across the area. Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest. At the same time models are showing possible tropical development in the southern Carribean Sea. IF something develops it would head towards this break. Right now timing, strength, and where this break will be is still very uncertain. However, at a minimum we will see moisture increasing which will result in better storm chances from Wednesday through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out of the northeast. An isolated shower or storm will be possible in Southwest Florida but chances are even slightly lower then yesterday so kept it out of the TAFs. && .MARINE... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weather looks to be quiet for Sunday and early next week as ridging remains to our north with winds out of the east or northeast around 5 to 10 knots. There is still a lot of uncertainity when it comes to possible tropical development in the southern Carribean Sea and then lift north. At a minimum we will see winds and seas increasing with hazardous boating conditions starting on Wednesday through the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 77 92 76 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 91 76 92 77 / 10 10 30 10 GIF 92 75 93 74 / 20 0 10 0 SRQ 91 76 92 75 / 10 0 20 10 BKV 92 71 93 71 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 91 79 91 79 / 0 0 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn