Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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547 FXUS62 KTBW 100724 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tranquil weather across the forecast area early this morning. Temperatures and dewpoints are generally in the 70s. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a weak shortwave trough to the north over the Southeastern U.S. Mid-level ridging continues to hold on for a bit longer across the Florida peninsula. This ridge will continue to breakdown over the next 24 hours. Expect this ridge and dry air aloft will keep precipitation coverage limited later this afternoon. For now, it appears best chances for showers and storms will be across southeastern portions of the area. Today will be another hot day with the dry conditions in place. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Much better chances for showers and storms will begin on Tuesday and will extend throughout much of the remainder of the forecast period. The mid-level ridge will breakdown and a 300 mb subtropical jet streak will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast area will be in the favored left exit region for divergence aloft. Moisture will also be increasing with PW values climbing to the 2.0-2.25 inch range on Tuesday. These PW values are over the 90th percentile for mid June climatological. Due to this, expect numerous to widespread showers/storms on Tuesday with PoPs around 70-90%. With the saturated atmosphere, lapse rates will be near moist adiabatic and do not expect any severe storms, although a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out. The story throughout the remainder of the week will be the tropical moisture and increased chances for showers/storms each day. The wet season looks to take hold across the region during the upcoming week. Forecast rainfall amounts over the next 7 days vary a great deal from north to south. Lower amounts of 2-8 inches are forecast to the north of I-4 with amounts as high as 10-15 inches across southwest Florida. For now, expect most of this rainfall will be beneficial with drought in place. Most streams are running below the 25th percentile for mid-June. If flooding issues do arise, expect it would be later in the week or in urban areas with poor drainage. We will continue to monitor the heavy rainfall potential throughout the upcoming days. High temperatures will be on the cooler side in this wet pattern. Highs Tuesday and beyond will generally be in the mid 80s to near 90. This wetter patterns looks to remain in place throughout the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions currently across the terminals. Winds are generally light and variable overnight but will become westerly to southwesterly later this morning. A few showers/storms may form across the southern terminals later this afternoon and evening but confidence is too low to mention VCTS or TS in the terminals at this time. Went with VCSH for now at PGD, FMY, and RSW after 16z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 88 79 / 40 70 90 70 FMY 93 78 86 78 / 70 70 90 90 GIF 96 76 88 75 / 60 60 90 70 SRQ 93 77 88 77 / 50 70 90 80 BKV 94 72 91 72 / 30 60 80 60 SPG 92 81 88 81 / 50 70 90 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley