296
FXUS62 KTBW 260030 CCA
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
821 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New UPDATE...
...Corrected Surge Values...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hurricane Helene is centered in the Southern Gulf of Mexico just
north of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is forecasted to strengthen
through tonight and Thursday as it moves northeast through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Widespread tropical impacts are expected
across West-Central and Southwest Florida beginning tonight and
Thursday.

* Storm Surge - Life threatening storm surge is expected Thursday
  and Friday. Potential peak surge amounts are 10 to 15 feet from
  Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River, 8 to 12 feet from Anclote River
  to Chassahowitzka, 5 to 8 feet from Middle of Longboat Key to
  Anclote River, 4 to 7 feet from Englewood to Middle of Longboat
  Key, and 3 to 5 feet from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

* Rain - Flooding rain threat will run from this evening through
  this weekend with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with locally
  higher amounts up to 10 inches possible. Even after Helene pulls
  away, additional rounds of heavy rainfall are expected this
  weekend.

* Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be possible
  tonight through Thursday night with the highest probabilities
  along the coast.

* Tornadoes - Isolated tornadoes are possible Thursday across the
  area.

Just a few adjustments to POPs have been made this evening to
reflect the latest observed trends and to incorporate the latest
high-res CAM guidance. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 808 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Occasional MVFR/local IFR conditions will be possible through
early tonight as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
move quickly northward ahead of Hurricane Helene. Flight
conditions will deteriorate further later tonight through Thursday
as rainbands spread north bringing MVFR/occasional IFR conditions.
East to southeast winds will increase and shift to southerly
Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds around 10 knots this evening
will become 15-25 knots later tonight, then 25-35 knots on
Thursday with gusts reaching up to 50 to 60 kts in some of the
stronger rainbands.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings are in effect for all waters as
Hurricane Helene enters the Gulf of Mexico today. This storm will
continue to move northward and pass over our waters through
Thursday, with very dangerous marine conditions continuing as it
strengthens into a major hurricane. Helene will make landfall around
the Big Bend region later Thursday with elevated winds continuing
into Friday before decreasing for the weekend. Waves will continue
to build for the rest of the day and remain elevated through Friday
before those also decrease for the weekend. Continue to follow the
National Hurricane Center for updates on Helene. &&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Hurricane Helene will pass over the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight
through Thursday, bringing frequent rain bands and strong winds. No
relative humidity concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  87  80 /  70  90  90  80
FMY  89  79  85  81 /  70  90  90  90
GIF  90  76  86  79 /  80  70  90  80
SRQ  90  80  89  81 /  70  90 100  80
BKV  90  77  84  77 /  80  80 100  80
SPG  90  79  85  82 /  70  90  90  80

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-
     Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/FORECAST TONIGHT...Flannery
AVIATION...Close
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Carlisle/Shiveley