Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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197 FXUS62 KTBW 220709 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 309 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 An overall quiet weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days. High pressure just to our north will shift slightly south during the early part of the week in response to a trough over the Great Lakes dipping south. The location of the trough axis will lead to light easterly flow through the middle of the week. This flow pattern, coupled with the drier air that has become established over the region, will lead to isolated rain chances each afternoon. The best chances of rain will exist along the west coast and just offshore as the sea breeze pushes west during the late afternoon and evening hours. Greater uncertainty in our forecast as we move into the the second half of the week as all eyes remain on the tropics. Confidence is increasing that an area of low pressure will become more organized in the Caribbean and move into the Gulf around mid week. Beyond initial development, models vary greatly regarding forecast track and intensity. This means a number of possible outcomes for West- Central Florida as we get into the end of the week. At the very least, moisture looks to increase for the region leading to increasing rain chances by the time we get to Wednesday, lasting through the end of the week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions across the region this morning. Light northeasterly flow is expected through the period with coastal sites seeing on shore flow during the afternoon hours. Isolated shower/thunderstorm chances during the late afternoon/early evening timeframe primarily for SWFL sites, though confidence remains too low at this time to include mention in TAF. Convection should be moving off shore around 02Z with light ENE flow overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Quiet weather pattern through mid week with high pressure in place. Light winds remaining under 15 kts through Monday. Still significant uncertainty regarding possible tropical development in the Caribbean Sea that looks to lift north into the Gulf toward the end of the week. At a minimum we will see winds and seas increasing starting on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 No fire weather concerns through the period. Lower rain chances continue through mid week with light winds expected. However minimum RH values will remain well above critical thresholds. Rain chances increase for the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 75 93 75 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 93 76 93 76 / 10 10 30 10 GIF 92 75 94 74 / 20 10 10 0 SRQ 93 75 93 75 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 93 71 94 71 / 10 10 10 0 SPG 92 79 93 78 / 10 10 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Fleming