Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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854 FXUS62 KTBW 190823 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 423 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A fairly active morning, compared to what we have see over the last few days. Showers and maybe a storm or two have been developing mainly along the coast as west to southwest flow pushes them onshore. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough centered over the Northeast and stretching down into the SE should crawl its way east through the next few days. At the same time, a weak front should move across the peninsula later today and into Friday. Slightly drier air around these features should limit storm coverage through the period, but isolated to scattered are still anticipated. Afternoon temperatures remain pretty constant peaking around 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM (SAT-WED)... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Over the weekend, troughiness remains along the Eastern Seaboard, but ridge of high pressure pushes and builds into next week. As a result, northeasterly flow sets up and continuing to support slightly drier conditions limiting showers and storm coverage and development during this time. Unfortunately, moisture will also be high enough to keep heat indices in the triple digits as temperatures remain int he 90s through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions prevail across most terminals overnight withe intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions possible, especially over SW FL through the morning. Showers over the water could be in the vicinity of coastal airports after around 09Z, but should dissipate by the late morning SRQ north. However, there is a chance for showers and storms to develop near PGD/FMY/RSW with a nonzero chance for LAL. Most of this activity should dissipate into the evening. LIght winds become west to northwesterly through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A weak front should move across the area today shifting winds from the northwest. Then, ridge of high pressure builds going into the weekend and early next week. East to northeasterly winds prevail at around 10 knots with evening surges bumping winds up to around 15 knots, possibly exercise caution levels early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the period. No headlines are expected through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Slightly lower moisture will keep showers and storm coverage lower than usual, however, isolated to scattered activity is still anticipated each afternoon and evening. Minimum humidity values remain well above critical levels, along with light winds, which will keep no fire weather hazards during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 90 75 / 30 0 10 10 FMY 90 75 92 75 / 60 30 40 20 GIF 92 74 92 74 / 40 10 20 0 SRQ 90 75 92 74 / 30 0 20 20 BKV 91 71 91 70 / 20 0 10 0 SPG 90 79 91 77 / 30 0 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis