688
FXUS62 KTBW 230755
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
355 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A weak upper-level low is swirling off the E Coast of FLorida as
weak upper-level ridging remains to the west. The overall upper-
level pattern is quite flat and zonal in nature, typical for summer.
In response, surface high pressure is in control, with the axis
situated to the east near Bermuda. This feature is retreating
farther to the east as an upper-level trough begins to dig over the
Great Lakes region. This won`t have a major impact on our weather,
other than to adjust the prevailing wind flow from a ESE to a WSW
over the next couple days.

Today looks to be the primary transition day with more of a
southerly flow when compared to the last couple days. The flow is
also advecting deep tropical moisture across the state, with PWATs
continuing to exceed 2 inches. Given ample moisture, instability,
and the development of a sea breeze boundary during the early-to-
mid-afternoon time-frame, we are checking all the boxes for
continued shower and thunderstorm activity once again today. The
earliest activity is likely to form closer to the coast as the sea
breeze boundary begins to initiate. More widespread activity is
favored late in the afternoon and into the evening as boundary
collisions become more frequent, and the east coast sea breeze
collides with the west coast sea breeze. Given that there is still
a subtle hint of easterly flow, this is favored closer to the
west coast as opposed to the east coast.

Looking beyond today, however, a WSW flow will gradually take shape.
This favors earlier showers and thunderstorms across West Central
and Southwest Florida before storms move inland and towards the east
coast later in the day. That doesn`t mean that our region will be
completely devoid of storms during the afternoon, however.

This pattern looks to remain dominant until next weekend, meaning
warm, muggy days are ahead of us. Next weekend, it does appear
subtropical ridge will be able to build back westward, ushering in a
return of ESE flow with scattered to numerous showers and storms
mainly during the afternoon and evening next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Thunderstorms are the primary aviation hazard. The expectation is
for convective development to begin along sea breeze boundaries,
becoming more scattered to numerous as the east coast sea breeze
makes its way to the west coast and eventually collides with the
west coast sea breeze. With these complex boundary interactions,
most TAF sites have a 5 to 7 hour window where thunderstorms could
be in the vicinity of airports. During these windows, there is
likely to be a 1 to 2 hour window when thunderstorms may be directly
over the field. However, that timing is too uncertain to try and
include a TEMPO. Nevertheless, a brief period of gusty winds and
potentially IFR conditions are possible in these time-frames. With
the rainy season getting well underway, thunderstorms will continue
to be the main hazard each day, shifting perhaps a little earlier in
the day as a WSW flow takes hold during the work week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Winds and seas remain light as high pressure dominates. However, the
flow is veering from a SSE to a WSW flow over the next couple days.
There is the potential for showers and storms at almost anytime
during the week. However, the greatest potential today will be this
afternoon and evening as thunderstorms over land meander towards the
coast, with locally hazardous winds and seas in the vicinity.
Beginning tomorrow and lasting through the week, showers and storms
will be favored more so during the first half of the day across
coastal waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Ample moisture and humidity remains to keep fire weather concerns
low through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  78  91  79 /  60  50  30  40
FMY  90  75  91  77 /  60  60  60  40
GIF  91  75  94  76 /  60  50  70  30
SRQ  90  76  91  77 /  60  50  30  40
BKV  91  73  92  74 /  50  40  30  30
SPG  90  81  91  82 /  60  50  30  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Flannery