Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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805 FXUS62 KTBW 101252 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in place near the coast and over the coastal waters from southern Tampa Bay area/Manatee County south this morning. Generally SW flow in place today, and have those rain chances shifting inland through the day, with low chances across the Nature Coast. Moisture will be lifting north from the Caribbean overnight and Tuesday, with some showers starting overnight and the more widespread rainfall beginning Tuesday and continuing through the week. Current forecast is on track and have no updates planned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 SW flow generally in place today, becoming more southerly after 02Z. Some morning showers and isolated storms near the coastal terminals this morning, and some afternoon storms possible mainly inland and south. VFR conditions will prevail, but MVFR to IFR is possible in/near storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 852 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Some morning showers and isolated storms in place across the central and southern waters. This activity should diminish in the afternoon as W/SW flow shifts things inland. Deep tropical moisture will then move over the area overnight and Tuesday with winds shifting more southerly, and then linger across the state through the rest of the week. This will allow for periods of rain, with some occasional embedded thunderstorms. No headlines are expected, but some gusty conditions are possible near storms. Current forecast is on track with this and have no major changes for the update. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 88 79 / 40 70 90 70 FMY 93 78 86 78 / 70 70 90 90 GIF 96 76 88 75 / 60 60 90 70 SRQ 93 77 88 77 / 50 70 90 80 BKV 94 72 91 72 / 30 60 80 60 SPG 92 81 88 81 / 50 70 90 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana