896
FXUS62 KTBW 221800
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Storms are already starting to develop over the area mainly inland
however these showers are expected to slowly move toward the coast
by the late afternoon and evening hours. Currently we are under very
neutral flow which will stick around until at least mid week.
What does this mean for us? Well looking at our seabreeze regimes
this puts us in regime one which favors storms closer to the
western half of the state. However, this flow regime also bring
concerns for localized flooding. This is due to the slow motions
of these storms bringing the potential for high rainfall totals
wherever these storms decide to develop.


By Thursday and Friday the ridge looks to push a little farther
south. This will shift our winds more southwest which typically
brings most of the shower activity to the east coast of Florida. The
best chance for our area to see rain will be located in Southwest
Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Thunderstorms are expected today around all terminals mainly in
the late afternoon and evening hours. Besides on station
thudnerstorms we can expect VFR conditions throughout the period
with wind generally staying below 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Winds will remain light and out of the south throughout
our weekend and into Monday. Our best thunderstorms chances will be
in the evening hours each day as storms start to push off land. By
Tuesday winds will shift more westerly but should remain below 10
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Summertime humidity and convection will be in place through
the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  77  90  78 /  70  70  70  50
FMY  91  75  91  75 /  90  60  70  40
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  90  60  70  40
SRQ  91  76  91  75 /  80  70  70  60
BKV  93  74  91  73 /  60  60  70  40
SPG  91  79  91  80 /  70  80  70  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana