167
FXUS62 KTBW 201321
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
921 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure ridging from the north has helped usher in some drier
air into the region. The 12Z morning sounding and water vapor
imagery is showing this dry air very well with a PWAT down to 1.39
inches. Visible satellite imagery and surface observations are
showing mostly sunny skies across the area. With the drier air in
place, rain chances will be on the lower side today with only about
a 30-40 percent chance of showers and storms this afternoon.
Seasonal temps expected to top out in the low 90`s. No changes
needed to current forecast.

There has been no significant changes in the tropics over the past
24 hours. There continues to be 3 areas of interest that the
National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on. 2 of these areas are
in the central Atlantic and have a 20 percent chance of development
over the next 7 days. The other area that models are hinting at
development will be in the northwest Caribbean and has a 40 percent
chance of development over the next 7 days. None of these systems
pose an immediate threat to Florida, but the one in the Caribbean
will be closely monitored over the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 919 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions with no weather restrictions expected through the
period. Winds will remain less than 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High pressure will build in from the north over the coming days. This
will produce a northeast through easterly wind flow over the
weekend, but remaining 15 knots of less. With high pressure building
into the area, some drier air will filter into the region resulting
in lower rain chances over the weekend and into next week. No
headlines are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  74  91  74 /  20  10  20   0
FMY  92  74  92  75 /  40  10  30  10
GIF  92  73  92  74 /  30  10  30   0
SRQ  92  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  91  70  92  70 /  20  10  20   0
SPG  91  78  92  77 /  20  10  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Hubbard