Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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766 FXUS62 KTBW 191145 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 745 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 743 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Showers and storms continue to form over the eastern gulf waters and will approach the west coast of Florida through the early morning hours. Will cover this with VCTS at all terminals through 15Z and TEMPO TSRA for TPA/PGD/FMY/RSW through 13Z. No weather restrictions are expected at all terminals after 15Z. Winds will remain less than 10 knots outside of thunderstorm activity. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A fairly active morning, compared to what we have see over the last few days. Showers and maybe a storm or two have been developing mainly along the coast as west to southwest flow pushes them onshore. Meanwhile, a broad upper level trough centered over the Northeast and stretching down into the SE should crawl its way east through the next few days. At the same time, a weak front should move across the peninsula later today and into Friday. Slightly drier air around these features should limit storm coverage through the period, but isolated to scattered are still anticipated. Afternoon temperatures remain pretty constant peaking around 90 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A weak front should move across the area today shifting winds from the northwest. Then, ridge of high pressure builds going into the weekend and early next week. East to northeasterly winds prevail at around 10 knots with evening surges bumping winds up to around 15 knots, possibly exercise caution levels early next week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the period. No headlines are expected through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 75 90 75 / 30 0 10 10 FMY 90 75 92 75 / 60 30 40 20 GIF 92 74 92 74 / 40 10 20 0 SRQ 90 75 92 74 / 30 0 20 20 BKV 91 71 91 70 / 20 0 10 0 SPG 90 79 91 77 / 30 0 10 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...Wynn DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Anderson