559
FXUS62 KTBW 180745
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
345 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level cutoff low over the southeastern U.S. will slowly
lift out over the next few days, though troughing will remain over
the eastern U.S. through the rest of the week and part of the
weekend before ridging eventually builds in. At the surface, a
fairly weak pressure pattern will remain in place with light onshore
wind flow becoming northeast by the end of week and continue through
early next week as weak high pressure builds in.

For today and Thursday, expect a similar rainfall pattern as
yesterday, with some relatively drier air in place and the highest
rain chances for the interior and southwest Florida region. Friday
looks to bring some even drier air (again, relatively speaking), so
although the best rain chances will be for those same areas, overall
coverage should be lower. As we head into the weekend and early next
week, there really isn`t much to get excited about as moisture
values remain about the same and so we can expected isolated to
scattered convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Rain chances
are slightly higher today and have included PROB30 groups for all
terminals this afternoon, though highest coverage will be inland
with a west flow in place. Showers and storms come to an end
around or a bit after 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds will continue through the next couple of days with the
sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon. High pressure
will then build in to our north Friday through the weekend, turning
winds to the northeast. No headlines are expected through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  90  75 /  20  10  40  10
FMY  93  76  92  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  94  75  92  74 /  40  20  50  20
SRQ  91  75  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
BKV  91  72  90  71 /  30  10  30  10
SPG  91  80  90  79 /  20  10  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle