Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
767 FXUS62 KTBW 201825 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 225 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Another day of dynamic upper and lower level activity across our area. Most of the peninsula is wedged between an upper level low located at the western tip of Cuba and the low pressure system situated in the Atlantic. Thanks to these two features, ample moisture is available to the NE and SW of our area, while central FL, rests under a dry slot. This will keep convection at a minimum for today, except for southern areas where more moisture is available. Models currently show the Atlantic low moving onshore somewhere along the NE coast of FL or GA coast early on Friday. With a North FL/GA landfall, this will keep our area in more of the dry zone for this system, best chances for rain will be mainly north of I4. Once this system has moved through we will once again resume our typical summertime pattern, based on the location of the Bermuda High. E to ESE flow continues through the weekend, keeping rain chances inland and pushing west in the late afternoon/evenings. However, mid next week the Bermuda High will drift a bit further east as a trough moves over the NE. WSW flow will take the place of the ESE. This will favor showers and storms earlier in the day along the west coast that will then move inland. Warm, muggy conditions stick around and heat indices will likely reach into the triple digits, especially as we enter into next week and the WSW flow pushes warm moist air over the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the majority of TAF sites in our area throughout the afternoon and evening due to a dry air mass lingering around the upper and middle portions of the state. Parts of southern Florida, however, have much more moisture in the air and as a result may be more likely to experience some isolated showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. PGD, FMY, and RSW are those sites that have the best chances of being impacted by these storms, but they should be fairly brief and move out of the area relatively quickly if and when they do arrive. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Winds will begin to diminish into the evening and become light and variable. This will help the seas calm down over the next couple of days and remove the need for any small craft headlines. Winds remain less than 10kts into the weekend and early next week before SW flow increases. Showers and storms possible each afternoon/evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 No major fire weather concerns through the period. Breezy ESE winds begin to diminish this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 93 79 94 / 20 40 30 60 FMY 74 94 78 93 / 10 50 30 60 GIF 75 95 77 95 / 20 50 20 60 SRQ 75 93 78 94 / 10 30 30 60 BKV 72 94 73 95 / 20 60 30 60 SPG 80 93 82 95 / 10 40 30 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn