Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
462 FXUS62 KTBW 200758 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 358 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A dynamic pattern continues across the Western Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico. This very complex and active pattern is influencing our local weather at home. With TS Alberto (associated with a Central American Gyre) to the West, and a separate disorganized low to the east of the Bahamas, Florida has continued to see a breezy easterly flow and rounds of showers and storms. Even as of this writing, a fair amount of convection is noted along and east of the FL Turnpike in East Central Florida. However, the pattern is evolving. As TS Alberto moves westward, the gradient is beginning to fade. Additionally, a pocket of drier air is working over Florida, likely limiting overall convection. Then there`s the potential for much of our region to remain in the subsidence region of the disturbance in the Atlantic. All of these aspects point to lower (but definitely not zero) rain chances for the next couple days. Once the low in the Atlantic moves inland sometime in the next 24 to 36 hours, more typical summertime weather should return. The Bermuda High looks to settle farther south, keeping an E to ESE flow in place through the weekend and into early next week. In this flow regime, the greatest chance for convection is favored later in the day along the West Coast, as the east and west coast sea breeze boundaries collide along and near I-75. Thus, the greatest chance for rain will reside in the mid-to-late afternoon and into the evening across the western half of the peninsula. By the middle of next week, the Bermuda High looks to retreat to the east as a trough digs in the northeast. This favors the return of a WSW flow early next week. With ample moisture remaining across the region, the pattern looks to be classically soggy. The GFS for instance is indicating PWATs well in excess of 2+ inches next week. This is common with a true WSW pattern, and a welcome change from last summer. However, have opted for more conservative 60% to 70% POPs versus some of the higher POPs offered by guidance to account for some of the uncertainty in overall coverage that remains. Satisfyingly, the forecast for the next week looks classically summer. Showers and storms (with varying spatial and temporal coverage) are expected each day as highs range from the upper 80s at the coast to the low-to-mid 90s inland. One should expect increasingly humid conditions as the weekend turns to next week and the WSW flow sets up. With so moisture being advected in from the west, overnight temps are likely to remain quite warm, and it will feel quite muggy at almost anytime. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The primary aviation hazard today will again be mainly afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms as a breezy easterly flow continues. However, the likelihood and confidence in any significant impacts across West Central FL terminals has declined such that mention has been removed from TAFs. Should storms develop, the most likely time-frame for impacts looks to be from around 19 to 21Z. The story is different for SWFL, where conditions do look more favorable. However, the probability for TSRA is low. Thunderstorms will continue to be the main concern for the days to come, with varying degrees of impacts each day. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The easterly flow is beginning to weaken, allowing a decrease in seas across coastal waters as isolated to scattered storms remain possible each day into the weekend. However, conditions will still remain hazardous to small craft through the day and into this evening. The best chance for storms will be late afternoon/evening as showers and thunderstorms drift offshore. Coverage is expected to increase some this weekend (during a similar time-frame), but by early next week, scattered to numerous showers and storms could be possible at nearly any time as a west-southwest flow takes control. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 354 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The driest and breeziest days this week are likely today and tomorrow. However, with decent coverage in storms over the last week and a half, and ample moisture remaining in place, there are no significant fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 76 93 79 / 10 10 20 30 FMY 92 74 93 78 / 40 10 50 30 GIF 91 74 95 77 / 20 20 30 20 SRQ 94 74 93 78 / 20 10 20 30 BKV 94 72 94 73 / 10 10 40 30 SPG 94 79 93 82 / 20 10 20 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Flannery