Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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124 FXUS62 KTBW 111114 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 714 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Numerous showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue across mainly southwest Florida terminals this morning, with some higher wind gusts along with MVFR or lower conditions expected periodically. Model guidance continues to suggest additional showers and storms developing by 15Z or earlier for the rest of the sites, though timing will be tough to pin down overall. Guidance also suggests there might be a bit of a break later this afternoon and evening, but still kept rain mention in the TAFs. Cigs and VSBYS will likely go VFR outside of activity, but will otherwise be MVFR or lower. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Current radar imagery early this morning indicates widespread showers generally south of I-4 with a few embedded rumbles of thunder. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a shortwave trough to the north across the Mid-Atlantic. The ridge that was over the Florida peninsula yesterday morning has now flattened in response to this shortwave trough passing to the north. There is an upper level jet that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This jet puts the forecast area in the favored left exit region for divergence aloft. At the surface, an E-W stalled boundary stretches across the Florida Panhandle along the northern Gulf Coast. Additionally, moisture is elevated across the forecast area. Last nights 00z TBW soundings indicated PW values over 2 inches. There is decent agreement among models that PW values will surge to 2.5 inches across portions of SW Florida later today. This would be near the maximum of climatology for mid-June PW values. Due to all of these factors, have 100% PoPs for today generally south of I-4 with PoPs tapering to the north but remaining elevated. Looking at some of the higher resolution guidance from the HREF, there is the signal for the potential of up to 8-12 inches of rain over the next 24 hours for portions of SW Florida. The ongoing drought and stream levels generally below the 25th percentile for mid-June should limit any widespread flooding issues, but there could be some localized flooding issues in areas of poor drainage, especially if these higher amounts are realized. For now, decided not to issue a Flood Watch due to the antecedent conditions. We will need to monitor rainfall amounts over the next 24 hours and may need to issue one for later in the week if these higher amounts are realized. Temperatures will be on the cooler side today with increased cloud cover and precipitation highs will only climb into the low 80s to near 90. Much of the same is forecast throughout the remainder of the work week with elevated chances for showers/storms. The jet streak across the north Gulf will continue and an upper level trough will eventually pivot across the area later in the week. Models depict slightly lower PW values on Wednesday and Thursday down in the 2.1-2.3 inch range. Regardless, these values are still near the 99th percentile of mid-June climatology for the area. Due to this, heavy rainfall will continue to be in the forecast. Total rainfall amounts of 10-15 inches still look to be a real possibility across portions of SW Florida. Rainfall amounts really do taper off north of I-4 with forecast amount of 1-3 inches along the Nature Coast expected over the next 7 days. Once again, highs will generally be in the 80s throughout much of the forecast period. Severe storms are not anticipated with any of these rounds of precipitation. Instability is limited in the overly saturated atmosphere. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Showers and storms have already begun to increase in coverage across the waters. Rounds of showers and storms will continue throughout the end of the week, with winds and seas higher near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 321 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased moisture and lift across the region will lead to numerous to widespread showers throughout much of the week. Due to the prolonged rainfall, no fire weather concerns are anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 78 86 78 / 100 80 80 70 FMY 84 77 86 77 / 100 90 90 90 GIF 85 75 86 75 / 100 70 80 60 SRQ 85 78 86 77 / 100 80 90 90 BKV 88 73 88 74 / 90 60 80 60 SPG 85 80 86 79 / 100 80 80 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Aviation...05/Carlisle Previous...Anderson