736
FXUS62 KTBW 241854
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Weather will remain quiet for the rest of the day with only a few
showers across the area. However, things will start to change
tomorrow as Tropical Storm Helene start to make its way into the
Gulf of Mexico. Helene is expected to enter the southern Gulf by
Wednesday evening. As it does so we will see an increase in moisture
and shower activity along with winds.

Thursday Helene will be pushing through the Gulf of Mexico with a
potential land fall Thursday evening in the Big Bend region as a
major hurricane. Currently forecast and models keep the storm off
our coast however this is expected to be a very big storm. Models
are showing it could potential be in the 90th percentile is size
compared to other hurricanes. This means effects from this system
will be felt well outside of the center of this storm. The main
threat to this storm will be storm surge. Surge values along SW
Florida is expected to be between 3 to 5 feet. In West Central
Florida and Tampa Bay between 5 to 8 feet and 10 to 15 feet along
the Nature Coast. Due to the quick movement of this storm
rainfall should be lower then Debby however 3 to 6 inches is
expected with locally higher amounts of 10 inches will be
possible. For more specific information for your local area please
check out our Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) and our Tropical
Page on our webpage.


After Helene has passed we will continue to see southwesterly flow
across the area for Friday through Monday. This will result in hot
and humid conditions with PoPs in the 60 to 70 percent range each
afternoon and evening. &&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the remainder of the
day, though brief isolated/scattered TSRA will be possible at
times through this evening. Otherwise, wind speeds and rain
chances will increase area-wide by Wednesday morning into the
afternoon as Tropical Storm Helene moves into the Gulf of Mexico.
This will result in ESE winds on Wednesday around 10-12 kts and
gusts over 20 kts and flight restrictions at times due to
increasing TSRA through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Winds and seas will be quite for the rest of today.
However Tropical Storm Helene is expected to enter the southern Gulf
of Mexico by Wednesday as it starts to strengthen. We will see winds
and seas increase throughout the day on Wednesday. Helene will start
to push into our water on Thursday as a major hurricane. We will see
dangerous to life threatening boating conditions with wave getting
above 25 feet in our offshore waters with hurricane force winds. By
Friday Helene will be pushing into Georgia  but winds will stay
gusty out of the southwest with gusts up to 30 knots. By the weekend
winds look to subside to around 10 knots out of the southwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Tropical Storm Helene will keep humidity and convection in place
through the weekend and next week with no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  90  77 /  20   0  70  90
FMY  91  78  87  77 /  30  20  80  90
GIF  92  76  89  77 /  10   0  60  80
SRQ  93  78  90  76 /  20  10  80  90
BKV  93  74  90  74 /  10   0  60  80
SPG  92  81  88  79 /  20  10  80  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-DeSoto-
     Hardee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Polk-Sumter.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-
     Inland Pasco-Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Watch for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Watch for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana