Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
084 FXUS62 KTBW 211757 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 157 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .DISCUSSION... Easterly flow continues aloft over the region this afternoon as Florida remains situated between high pressure over the eastern half of the country and broad low pressure near the Yucatan/southwest Gulf region. At the surface, low pressure spins off the northeast Florida coast and is gradually making its way west-northwestward and should reach land by tonight. Kind of an interesting setup overall as higher moisture is in place across north Florida near the low and deep tropical moisture remains over south Florida extending westward, but there is also a sliver of drier air right over the central part of the peninsula. This overall pattern should hold for the rest of the day, even as the low creeps toward the FL/GA line. For our local area, this will generally mean higher rain chances over the Nature Coast, with much lower chances elsewhere. The exception could be the southwest Florida region as models are showing some moisture return late, but chances are not quite as high for these locations. The Atlantic ridge builds back in for the weekend, with an east- southeast low-level wind across the region. This flow is on the lighter side, which will give the west coast sea breeze a chance to move inland some, leading to a fairly typical summertime pattern favoring the highest rain chances near the I-75 corridor in the afternoon and evening hours. We then transition to a southwest flow for Monday and keep with that through the rest of the week, along with sufficient available moisture. This will favor some showers and storms offshore overnight moving toward the coast for the morning hours and then inland and eastward for the rest of each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected, though rain chances have increased somewhat for the TAF sites. Uncertainty still exists, however, so feel that VCTS is the best route at this time. A quiet overnight period is expected then rain chances increase even more for tomorrow afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... Southeast flow will remain over the waters through the weekend except for a turn onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. Winds become more southwesterly on Monday and continue through the rest of the week. No headlines are expected, though higher shower and storm chances are in the forecast starting Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 93 78 91 / 40 70 40 60 FMY 77 93 76 91 / 30 70 60 70 GIF 77 95 76 93 / 40 70 50 70 SRQ 78 94 76 91 / 20 60 50 50 BKV 73 95 74 93 / 50 70 40 70 SPG 82 94 81 91 / 30 60 50 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle