703
FXUS62 KTBW 221343
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
943 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

It is shaping up to be a pretty quiet weather day across West
Central and SW Florida. PWs around 1.5 with northeasterly winds
will keep most of us dry with only an isolated storm or two
expected in Southwest Florida. No major chances needed to the
forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

An overall quiet weather pattern will remain in place over the next
several days. High pressure just to our north will shift slightly
south during the early part of the week in response to a trough over
the Great Lakes dipping south. The location of the trough axis will
lead to light easterly flow through the middle of the week. This
flow pattern, coupled with the drier air that has become established
over the region, will lead to isolated rain chances each afternoon.
The best chances of rain will exist along the west coast and just
offshore as the sea breeze pushes west during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

Greater uncertainty in our forecast as we move into the the second
half of the week as all eyes remain on the tropics. Confidence is
increasing that an area of low pressure will become more organized
in the Caribbean and move into the Gulf around mid week. Beyond
initial development, models vary greatly regarding forecast track
and intensity. This means a number of possible outcomes for West-
Central Florida as we get into the end of the week. At the very
least, moisture looks to increase for the region leading to
increasing rain chances by the time we get to Wednesday, lasting
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with winds mainly out
of the northeast. An isolated shower or storm will be possible in
Southwest Florida but chances are even slightly lower then
yesterday so kept it out of the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Quiet weather pattern through mid week with high pressure in place.
Light winds remaining under 15 kts through Monday. Still
significant uncertainty regarding possible tropical development in
the Caribbean Sea that looks to lift north into the Gulf toward
the end of the week. At a minimum we will see winds and seas
increasing starting on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

No fire weather concerns through the period. Lower rain chances
continue through mid week with light winds expected. However minimum
RH values will remain well above critical thresholds. Rain chances
increase for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  76  93  75 /  10   0  10   0
FMY  91  76  93  76 /  20  10  30  10
GIF  92  74  94  74 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  91  75  93  75 /  10   0  10  10
BKV  92  71  94  71 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  90  79  93  78 /   0   0  10  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn