499
FXUS62 KTBW 200042
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
842 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

No changes to existing forecast, with the gradient between stout
ridging extending from the W Atlantic across the E U.S. and
Tropical Storm Alberto in the Bay of Campeche responsible for
brisk easterly flow over the region. Shower and storm activity
from earlier has diminished with the loss of daytime heating,
with partly cloudy skies likely overnight before redevelopment
tomorrow morning into afternoon brings the next round of activity
streaming westward across the area. Tomorrow`s activity may tend
to focus less across WCFL as opposed to the Nature Coast and SWFL,
but will monitor upcoming guidance trends for potential changes.
Expect overnight lows in the 70s and Thursday highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s for most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Broad upper level ridging and strong surface high pressure continue
to ridge west-southwestward over the southeast U.S. for the next
couple of days. Interaction between this high pressure and Tropical
Storm Alberto in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and a tropical wave
northeast of the Bahamas is producing a tight pressure gradient that
is resulting in gusty easterly winds over Florida for the next
couple of days. By Friday morning, the upper ridge and surface high
becomes more east-west oriented, while a tropical easterly wave
moves across the Florida peninsula. This will produce a slightly
decreased pressure gradient allowing for decreasing winds across the
area. Models are also hinting out some slightly drier air with PWAT
values dropping to around 1.3 - 1.5 inches. If this does pan out, it
will be short-lived with moisture rebounding by Saturday with PWAT
values back up to around 1.7 - 2.2 inches over the weekend and into
next week. With all that being said, the forecast is really kind of
a typical summertime forecast. Daily afternoon showers and storms
will be possible each day through the period. Daytime highs will top
out in the low to mid 90`s and overnight lows in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Evening convection continues to wind down, with VCSH left in for
northern terminals for the initial hour of the cycle, otherwise
VFR expected overnight into Thursday morning before the potential
for showers and brief restrictions returns around midday with the
chance of an afternoon storm, mainly across southern terminals,
with less certainty for northern terminals, before convection
diminishes overall into the evening. Brisk easterly winds remain
in place, generally 10-15 knots during the afternoon with higher
gusts, and a few knots lower during the overnight and early
morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A tight pressure gradient remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
for the next couple of days. This is producing gusty easterly winds
that has warranted the continuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the
eastern gulf through Thursday afternoon. The gradient weakens by
Thursday evening with decreasing winds expected for the latter part
of the week and into the weekend. Daily afternoon showers and
storms will be possible each day through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Pretty typical summertime pattern continues over the area with
abundant moisture, warm temperatures and easterly winds, gusty at
times. The only fire weather concern will be some high dispersions
this afternoon and again on Thursday. Scattered showers and isolated
storms expected each afternoon through the end of the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  93  76  94 /  10  20  20  60
FMY  76  93  75  93 /  10  40  20  60
GIF  74  90  74  95 /  30  30  20  60
SRQ  75  94  75  94 /  10  20  30  60
BKV  72  93  72  96 /  10  20  20  60
SPG  80  94  79  94 /  10  20  30  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley