365
FXUS62 KTBW 151737
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
137 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The low clouds and fog across parts of the area this morning is
a bit slow to erode as winds still remain light but this should
mix out over the next hour or so. Otherwise, it has been a quiet
morning with just a few isolated showers across SWFL in the
vicinity of lingering deeper moisture but much lower moisture
levels across the central FL peninsula in the wake of the weak
frontal boundary yesterday is supporting much drier conditions
with no rain expected across the Tampa Bay area this afternoon.
No changes needed to the ongoing forecast at this time with a
rather seasonal Sunday ahead as highs reach the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Local weather conditions likely to remain relatively unchanged
through the week due to a blocking pattern set up over the
eastern U.S. Westerly flow aloft is in place over the peninsula
this morning between west-east oriented troughing over the SE
U.S. south of high pressure centered over SE Canada/Great Lakes,
and a ridge axis south of the state over the S Gulf/N Caribbean.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary extends across the
peninsula and into the Gulf from an area of low pressure off the
GA/Carolinas coast, leading to N-NE flow north of the boundary and
W-NW flow to its south. Despite lower PW values this morning
generally between 1.3-1.8 inches over most of the area, a shallow
moist layer over the lowest 1-2 km has allowed low clouds and
patchy fog to fester again this morning, particularly for northern
and central areas. Improving conditions expected as the morning
progresses as daytime heating erodes the low cloud layer. Deeper
moisture still in place across SWFL will favor the greatest chance
of showers/embedded storms developing later this morning to the
south of the boundary. Given the W-NW flow south of the boundary,
expect convection to progress eastward away from the coast late
morning through mid-afternoon with drier conditions through the
remainder of the day. Elsewhere across the CWA, the only other
notable PoPs look to be across areas north of I-4 from mid-late
afternoon into the evening as Atlantic moisture advects into the
area via N-NE flow north of the boundary.

On Monday and Tuesday, the surface low off the SE U.S. coast is
expected to move inland and across the Carolinas with the
boundary continuing to linger across the peninsula, while the
troughing aloft over the SE U.S. expands northward across the E
U.S., dislodging the SE Canada/Great Lakes high. Moisture only
gradually recovers over the peninsula, keeping PoPs mostly in the
30-50 percent range while continuing to favor highest PoPs
transitioning inland through the afternoon hours. After a brief
uptick in moisture around mid week, drier air again looks to work
into the region during the latter half of the week as a result of
N-NW flow around the area of low pressure aloft over the E U.S.,
leading to a reduction in PoPs late week into the weekend.

Temperatures through the period look to remain fairly close to
normal, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Triple-digit
heat indices will still be likely during the afternoons, however
they are expected to remain below advisory level, in part due to
the periods of drier air expected over the upcoming week, which is
to be expected as we approach the autumnal equinox a week from
today.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day
as dry air continues to filter into the area and limit rain
chances. However, lingering low level moisture will bring the
chance of low stratus or possibly fog overnight but confidence in
overall coverage is low at this time, though CIG/VSBY
restrictions will be possible. Otherwise, scattered VCTS could
develop late morning into early afternoon on Monday as moisture
recovers and the sea breeze spreads inland so additional brief
restrictions could occur within any precipitation activity.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Drier air has settled over much of the waters this morning,
however lingering moisture across the southernmost waters will
keep isolated to scattered showers and storms off the southwest
Florida coast. Winds will generally be from the northeast in the
morning hours before shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops
during the afternoon over the next couple of days. Winds will be
5-10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 455 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak frontal boundary continues to sink slowly southward across
the area with associated drier air resulting in lower rain chances,
however a few showers and storms will remain possible in interior
areas and southwest Florida. Minimum relative humidity values are
expected to remain well above critical levels and given wet soil
conditions from recent rainfall, fire danger is expected to remain
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  90  76  90 /   0  30  10  30
FMY  78  91  77  91 /   0  20  20  40
GIF  76  92  75  92 /  10  40  10  40
SRQ  77  90  76  91 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  73  90  72  91 /  10  40  10  40
SPG  80  90  80  90 /   0  20  10  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close