888
FXUS62 KTBW 202343
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
743 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail through most of the period with easterly
winds decreasing overnight. Moisture gradually returns to the area
potentially bringing isolated to scattered activity near terminals
along the afternoon sea breeze. Therefore, PROB30 was added for a
few hours later in the period. Breezy and erratic winds along with
lower visibilities will be possible of storms develop.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Another day of dynamic upper and lower level activity across our
area. Most of the peninsula is wedged between an upper level low
located at the western tip of Cuba and the low pressure system
situated in the Atlantic. Thanks to these two features, ample
moisture is available to the NE and SW of our area, while central
FL, rests under a dry slot. This will keep convection at a
minimum for today, except for southern areas where more moisture
is available. Models currently show the Atlantic low moving
onshore somewhere along the NE coast of FL or GA coast early on
Friday. With a North FL/GA landfall, this will keep our area in
more of the dry zone for this system, best chances for rain will
be mainly north of I4.

Once this system has moved through we will once again resume our
typical summertime pattern, based on the location of the Bermuda
High.  E to ESE flow continues through the weekend, keeping rain
chances inland and pushing west in the late afternoon/evenings.
However, mid next week the Bermuda High will drift a bit further
east as a trough moves over the NE. WSW flow will take the place of
the ESE. This will favor showers and storms earlier in the day along
the west coast that will then move inland.

Warm, muggy conditions stick around and heat indices will likely
reach into the triple digits, especially as we enter into next
week and the WSW flow pushes warm moist air over the area.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  93  79  94 /  20  40  30  60
FMY  74  94  78  93 /  10  50  30  60
GIF  75  95  77  95 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  75  93  78  94 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  72  94  73  95 /  20  60  30  60
SPG  80  93  82  95 /  10  40  30  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt