707
FXUS62 KTBW 250003
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
803 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Limited moisture today allowed for isolated showers and storms to
develop and shift west across the area, mainly from around
Interstate 4 and the Tampa Bay area south. Most of these showers
are now shifting west into the Gulf waters, although a few
isolated locations could still see brief showers over the next
couple of hours.

Overnight, moisture begins to increase from the south ahead of
Tropical Storm Helene, with increasing rain chances expected
over the coastal waters overnight, and a few showers pushing into
southwest Florida possible towards morning. The only forecast
changes for the near term were updated wind forecasts with the
5 PM tropical advisory. Otherwise, the forecast for the overnight
period looks on track with winds continuing to increase as the
pressure gradient drops ahead of Helene. Residents should continue
to monitor the forecast of Helene and plan to finish preparations
on Wednesday ahead of the onset of tropical conditions Wednesday
night and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 803 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through early Wednesday morning, then
areas of MVFR/local IFR conditions will develop in the afternoon as
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms develop and
spread northward. East to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots tonight
will increase to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts and shift to
more southeasterly late Wednesday morning through the afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Winds and seas will be quite for the rest of today. However
Tropical Storm Helene is expected to enter the southern Gulf of
Mexico by Wednesday as it starts to strengthen. We will see winds
and seas increase throughout the day on Wednesday. Helene will
start to push into our water on Thursday as a major hurricane. We
will see dangerous to life threatening boating conditions with
wave getting above 25 feet in our offshore waters with hurricane
force winds. By Friday Helene will be pushing into Georgia but
winds will stay gusty out of the southwest with gusts up to 30
knots. By the weekend winds look to subside to around 10 knots out
of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  77  86 /   0  70  90  90
FMY  78  87  77  87 /  20  80  90  90
GIF  76  89  77  88 /   0  60  80  90
SRQ  78  90  76  88 /  10  80  90  90
BKV  74  90  74  87 /   0  60  80  90
SPG  81  88  79  88 /  10  80  90  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-
     DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland
     Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday morning for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Pasco-
     Pinellas.

     Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Levy-Coastal Pasco-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL
     out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE...Fleming
AVIATION...Close
PREVIOUS MARINE...Shiveley