Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
011 FXXX10 KWNP 180031 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 18 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale G2). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2024 May 18 May 19 May 20 00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.67 03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 3.33 2.33 06-09UT 4.33 4.00 3.67 09-12UT 4.00 4.00 3.00 12-15UT 3.00 2.67 3.00 15-18UT 1.67 2.33 3.33 18-21UT 1.67 2.00 3.33 21-00UT 2.33 2.67 2.33 Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected on 18 May due to CME effects. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast for 19-20 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024 May 18 May 19 May 20 S1 or greater 10% 5% 5% Rationale: A slight chance for S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions exists on 18 May due to the flare potential from now departed Region 3664. Probabilities drop to a nominal levels on 19-20 May from the remaining active regions on the Suns visible disk. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 17 2024 2108 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024 May 18 May 19 May 20 R1-R2 55% 35% 35% R3 or greater 25% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) conditions are likely on 18 May and a chance for R3 (Strong) exist 18 May. Conditions decay to a chance for R1-R2 conditions and a slight chance for R3 on 19-20 May.