Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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247 FXUS65 KTFX 181009 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 409 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread precipitation pushes off to the east this morning, with another round of precipitation with a few thunderstorms arriving this afternoon. Daily precipitation chances remain through the forecast period, with better chances arriving Friday. Temperatures gradually warm up, becoming well above average by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today...Widespread rain and mountain snow showers will slowly push off to the east along with the main upper level wave this morning. Snow levels at 4,500ft to 5,000ft can accumulate a few more inches of snow early this morning(mainly on grassy surfaces). As the sun comes up, snow levels will rise back to 6,000-7,000ft. This combined with widespread snow moving out of the area, I`ve kept the Winter Weather Advisories to expire this morning (6am for Central/Southwest MT mountains and 12pm for the Northern Continental Divide). Wind chills will be cold this morning. Lower elevations is forecasted for wind chills to drop into the 20s-30s while mountain locations can drop into the teens. Another upper level disturbance from Canada will push south into the region this afternoon, producing more scattered to widespread showers. A few thunderstorms is also expected with showers this afternoon. These showers can bring up to another 0.1-0.25" of moisture. Showers will taper down during the evening, ending around midnight. Wednesday and Thursday...Northwest flow aloft will transition to southwest flow aloft over the next few days. The southwest flow will help bring in warmer air and help moderate temperatures closer to normal averages. There will be upper air disturbances passing through that will produce isolated showers/thunderstorms (primarily across Central/North Central MT). Precipitation amounts look to be light. The NBM 75th percentile in precipitation amounts shows the CWA receiving up to a 0.1" of moisture for both days. Friday...A small shortwave trough passing through will bring better chances for scattered/widespread precipitation, primarily for central and eastern portion of the CWA. There`s a 40-60% from Central Chouteau, Judith Basin, and Hill Counties and to the east of receiving 0.25" of precipitation. Saturday and beyond...By the weekend, temperatures will be well above normal across the region. We will be monitoring locations across the CWA reaching 90 degrees for the first time this year on Sunday. The climatological average for the first 90 degree day of the year happens on June 23rd for Great Falls and Bozeman, June 26th for Helena, and June 12th for Havre. NBM probabilities are showing a 50-60% for high temperatures reaching 90 degrees around the Helena and Bozeman area, and 30% for the Great Falls area. The beginning of next week brings more low chances for precipitation daily. -Wilson && .AVIATION... 18/06Z TAF Period Widespread rain, a rain/snow mix, or snow will gradually exit eastern portions of Southwest through North Central Montana through 12-18z Tuesday; however, another disturbance pivoting southeast around the departing one will bring a return chance of showers and scattered thunderstorms moving from northwest to southeast across North Central and into portions of Southwest Montana beyond 12z Tuesday. IFR/MVFR/low-VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals regardless of falling precipitation, with the lowest and most persistent CIGS occurring in THE northerly upslope favored locations of Central and Southwest Montana. Mountain obscuration will continue across the entirety of the Norther Rockies over the next 24 hours. - Moldan Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 59 37 67 41 / 80 50 30 0 CTB 54 31 64 38 / 80 30 30 0 HLN 61 40 72 46 / 70 40 20 0 BZN 55 33 68 39 / 50 50 10 0 WYS 50 25 62 32 / 60 20 10 0 DLN 55 31 66 37 / 40 30 0 0 HVR 60 41 68 45 / 60 50 30 0 LWT 55 34 65 41 / 90 30 40 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for East Glacier Park Region-Southern Rocky Mountain Front. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County-Snowy and Judith Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls