Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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861 FXUS65 KTFX 180559 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1158 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS... A weather system will bring widespread rainfall to North Central and Southwestern Montana over the next 48 hours, with some areas seeing in excess of 2 inches, mainly in an area bounded by Great Falls, Lewistown, and Havre. Rain will let up late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with mostly clear skies expected on Thursday. && .UPDATE... Main update to the overnight forecast period was to better time the exit of that first band of showers and storms to the north and the entrance of more widespread precipitation with a lingering chance of thunderstorms from the southeast. Much of Central and Southwest Montana are in a lull between the areas of precipitation as of mid-evening, but the northeast to north flow around the low pressure system will cause the precipitation to become more widespread from the southeast and east overnight. Overall, the current Flash Flood / Flood Watches seem to handle the situation well, as does the High Wind Warning, so will leave them as is for now. -Coulston && .AVIATION... 18/06Z TAF Period Areas of rain and a few emebedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight as an fairly potent storm system lifts north into eastern MT. MVFR/IFR conditions will become widespread as precipitation coverage increases after 08z with periods of LIFR possible in areas of moderate to heavy precipitation intensity. Low ceilings and periods of lower visibility will continue through much of the day Wednesday across N-central MT with more widespread improvement slowly developing from SW to NE across the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Gusty west to northwest surface winds also develop later tonight and increase through Wednesday morning with gusts in excess of 35 kts possible across primarily north-central MT terminals. In addition to the overall poor flight conditions from precipitation and low ceilings, areas of mountain wave turbulence and aircraft icing concerns will develop later tonight through Wednesday before the system exits. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .HYDROLOGY... A flash flood watch remains in effect for the Horse Gulch fire burn scar area through Wednesday with initial concerns for brief higher intensity precipitation with thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and evening. While the potential for intense precipitation rates decreases tonight, steadier moderate precipitation will maintain some threat for flash flooding and debris flows in the burn scar area. Local minor flooding concerns may also arise on Wednesday with persistent moderate rainfall across portions of north-central MT. This is particularly true where heaviest amounts are expected near the central MT mountain ranges, such as the area around the Little Belt, Snowy, and Bears Paw Mountains, where some low lying areas and locations with poor drainage may begin to see standing water buildup. With this in mind, I have issued a Flood Watch for these areas. Hoenisch/Ludwig && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024/ Key Points: -Scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening in North Central Montana, particularly east of a line from Havre to Great Falls to Lewistown -Significant (once in 10-20yr) rainfall amounts for September likely across portions of N-central MT tonight through Wednesday -In addition, gusty winds are expected Wednesday, especially in Judith Basin and Fergus Counties Short term (through Thursday)... A notable weather system will continue to push into the area this afternoon and evening, which will bring a fairly widespread soaking rain to the area over the next 48 hours. For the rest of the day today, rain showers will continue to gradually work their way further north from their current location in Southwestern Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, and they will strengthen as they do so. Some of these showers may eventually grow into strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly east of a line from Havre to Great Falls to Lewistown, where a few instances of gusty winds and large hail will be possible later this evening and into the overnight hours. Elsewhere, expect rain showers and a few thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours, with some localized heavy rainfall possible. Wednesday will see rain continue and become mostly a widespread stratiform/steady rain, with a few areas of embedded moderate to heavy rainfall. Within this area of widespread rainfall, models have been fairly insistent of a band of moderate to heavy rainfall setting up across the plains of North Central Montana, and ensembles show some areas seeing at least a 50% chance of seeing 2 of rain, mainly in the area from Havre to Great Falls, then north of the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains to Lewistown in association with this persistent band of more intense rainfall. While soils are fairly dry given that we are not anticipating widespread river flooding, but a Flood Watch has been issued for the potential for flooding of low lying areas. In addition to the rainfall, well have to watch for a brief period of gusty winds as drier air works in behind this system Wednesday afternoon and evening, particularly in Judith Basin and Fergus Counties, where ensembles show at least a 60% chance of seeing wind gusts over 60 mph, which is backed up by a strong low level jet on the back side of this system that will likely mix to the surface as the rain comes to an end tomorrow evening. Behind this system, a surface high pressure system will push in from the Southwest, allowing for a dry day on Thursday. Ludwig Extended (Friday through next Tuesday)... A more progressive west to northwest flow aloft pattern is generally supported by most medium range model ensembles, however considerable differences exist in the location and timing of troughing within this pattern, leading to lower than average confidence in forecast details for this weekend into early next week. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 62 48 73 / 100 90 60 0 CTB 51 65 45 71 / 80 50 30 0 HLN 50 64 48 74 / 100 90 40 0 BZN 46 61 43 71 / 100 100 50 10 WYS 34 52 33 62 / 90 80 50 20 DLN 44 59 40 67 / 70 70 20 10 HVR 54 66 49 73 / 100 100 90 10 LWT 49 56 46 68 / 100 100 100 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Snowy and Judith Mountains. High Wind Warning from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Snowy and Judith Mountains. Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls