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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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725 FXUS63 KTOP 290803 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances continue today, mainly south of I-35. - Cooler temperatures today and Sunday, but hot and humid conditions return Monday and Tuesday. - Periodic storm chances for the next week, best chances next Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Early this morning a mid level trough was moving across the northern and central Plains. An embedded PV anomaly was moving across northeastern Colorado into southwest Nebraska at 07Z. A diffuse nearly stationary front was analyzed from southwest iowa into southwest Kansas while a cold front was located from Minnesota into southwest Nebraska. Scattered convection across central Nebraska into northwest Kansas will continue to move east southeast and are expected to weaken as they move into north central and central Kansas. Additional convection is expected from areas south of I-35 through Sunrise where 1000-925 mb frontogenesis was located at 07Z. Could see some morning convection across the northern counties this morning as well. Later this afternoon the "cold" front is forecast to be in south central and southeast Kansas. The placement of the front will be the main concern for areas south of I-35 this afternoon and evening, especially if the front is slower than forecast with a more southerly placement. This would increase the chances for strong to a few severe storms developing along the front. Temperatures today will be cooler behind the front with highs in the 80s expected. Tonight, additional storms are expected to develop in the western high Plains in an area of upslope flow. The convection is forecast to move slowly east-southeast within the 850-300mb thickness and within the moisture and instability axis that transitions from western into central Kansas by Sunday morning. Have maintained morning precipitation chances Sunday for decaying storms. The upper ridge builds northward Sunday night and Monday. Elevated storms are forecast Sunday night within the low level jet and associated moisture and instability axis. The heat builds back on Monday as well as a return of higher humidity. Highs top out in the mid to upper 90s in north central and central Kansas, with 80s further east. Heat indices approach 105 degrees in central Kansas on Monday. The heat and humidity increases Tuesday with a thermal axis extending across northeast Kansas. Highs will be in the 90s to low 100s with heat indices around 105. The highest rain chances (60-70%) are expected Tuesday night as a mid level trough moves across the central Plains and a cold front moves southeast and then stalls in northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. Increasing low level jet and moisture transport into northern Kansas will increase the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Periodic storm chances are expected Wednesday through Friday with seasonal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the period, outside of any additional convection. WInds light and variable becoming north under 10kts after 10Z, then north northeast around 10kts after 14Z. Chances for inclusion of tsra are too low for inclusion in the terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...53