103
FXUS63 KTOP 262243
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
543 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues with near to slightly above normal
  temperatures into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Upper low remains stationary in the middle of the Mississippi Valley
while Hurricane Helene continues to head toward the Florida
panhandle. Upper ridging holds strong from northern Mexico through
the Northern Plains. With the ridge dominating over the local area,
this keeps the quiet weather pattern in place. Mid/high cloud cover
should increase in eastern KS Friday and Saturday as the hurricane
tracks north and phases into the other upper low. Any precipitation
is still on track to remain well east of the area. As the two
systems merge together, the upper ridge gets pushed slightly back to
the west, although little change in the air mass is expected overall
through Monday. As such, a persistence forecast should hold until
then with highs mostly in the 80s and lows in the 50s. Low-lying
spots and river valleys may see some patchy fog in the early morning
to around sunrise, similar to this morning.

The next system to meaningfully impact our area comes Monday night
into Tuesday, as a shortwave trough tracks through southern Canada
and the far northern CONUS and drags a cold front across the area. A
lack of moisture precludes any rain chances, although we can at
least expect cooler temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the low
70s. Low-level flow turns back to the south on Wednesday, however,
keeping the cool-down brief with WAA returning high temperatures to
the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions will persist at all sites through the TAF. Some
shallow ground fog could be possible around sunrise Friday
morning, but should not cause any impacts as most areas will not
see any if at all. Skies remain mostly clear until after noon
Friday as high cirrus filters in from the east with winds
increasing to around 10 mph out of the north/northeast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Griesemer