254
FXUS63 KTOP 170507
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Staying warm throughout the week, eventually turning cooler by the
  end of the weekend.

- Daily rain chances, with best chances Wednesday morning and
  Saturday/Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Still seeing some lingering showers and thunderstorms across north-
central Kansas in an area of persistent isentropic ascent. These
will are fizzling out now, but will keep down temperatures where
thicker cloud cover persists. Elsewhere, expecting another warm day
given sunny skies, good mixing, and the upper ridge axis sitting
overhead. This ridge axis is between two slow-moving upper lows -
one deeper one over the West Coast and one weaker one trapped over
the Southeast states. Given only slow movement of the upper pattern,
expecting a similar day tomorrow as today. A few more showers/storms
will be possible across north-central KS during the morning, with
highs approaching 90 once morning clouds dissipate.

Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the western upper low will lift north-
northeast across the Rockies. The best height falls will stay well
to our northwest, but an increasing LLJ will support overnight
isentropic ascent over western Kansas, leading to more scattered
showers and storms. These will shift east towards the forecast area
Wednesday morning, gradually weakening with time and eastern extent.
A few showers and storms may linger into Thursday PM as a weakening
cold front pushes east, but with the better upper support well to
our north, storm coverage looks to be on the low end.

Friday and into the weekend, a second upper low digs into the
southwest US behind the first before eventually lifting northeast
towards the Plains. While some low rain chances continue Friday, it
will otherwise be another warm day with highs in the 90s, as
Thursday`s weak front largely falls apart before it really pushes
through our area. Cooler temperatures and higher rain chances don`t
arrive until Saturday and Sunday when the upper low makes its
closest approach. Better surface pressure falls and upper forcing do
support widespread showers and storms. However there are still
some notable differences in the timing, path, and amplitude of
the wave that make details uncertain at this point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

RAP and NAM progs show the isentropic lift persisting through
the morning hours Tuesday across north central KS. Probs that
showers could get into MHK look to be around 20 or 30 percent
after 12Z. So I may include a VCSH for a few hours. Precip is
expected to remain west of TOP and FOE with VFR conditions
persisting.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Wolters