224
FXUS63 KTOP 231927
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday.

- Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The upper-level trough and associated light rain has been slow
to exit the area today. Light showers continue across portions
of far east central Kansas. CLoud cover has also been stubborn
across eastern Kansas. All of this activity will finally exit
later this evening. We should see some brief clearing tonight
before another trough quickly enters the area. A couple vort
maxes will swing through northeast Kansas tonight into tomorrow.
The first one may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the
area (~20% chances) but the better chance of precipitation will
come with a passing cold front late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules
of CAPE should be enough for some thunderstorms to develop with
the passing of the front and dynamic upper-level system.

The next focus turns to this weekend as the remnants of a
tropical system may pivot northwestward near our area. There is
considerable uncertainty as to how far west it will make it and
how progressive the overall pattern will be, but at least
portions of the Midwest and maybe even the central Plains could
see some good rain this weekend. What is more certain is the
temperature profile through the week. A very pleasant week is
expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR at all TAF sites through the TAF period. A VFR cloud deck
will hang tough through the day and into the evening. A cold
front will move through tomorrow late morning to early afternoon
and may bring some rain or even an isolated thunderstorm to the
area, but confidence in coverage and timing is too low at this
time to mention in the TAF.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones