Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
458 FXUS63 KTOP 222328 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers ending west to east through tonight, may linger in far eastern Kansas into Monday. - Chance for scattered showers Tuesday. - Temperatures near to a little below normal for the week with an unsettled pattern late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Satellite imagery today show the upper trof over the central high plains making slow progress eastward. Cooler air with the associated front has moved across much of the forecast area, but enough lift remains to bring showers into the cooler air, with highs holding in the 60s. As the drier air gets deeper from north to south, showers will be relegated to the southern counties, where they may redevelop into Monday as the last bit of lift with the upper system moves through. Kept temperatures on the cool side of the mean on Monday, with clouds likely slow to clear. Once they do, with light winds Monday night and recent rain, could see some fog or haze in low spots with near normal lows in the 50s. Another clipper of sorts drops southward across the area on Tuesday into Wednesday, and with the upper low right overhead, may be enough instability to generate showers and possibly a rumble of thunder before quickly moving south. This should keep us on the subsident dry side for Wednesday with highs once again in the 70s. The forecast beyond Wednesday is highly variable and will likely continue to be, as several features interact and impact each other through the period. GFS and EC suggest the low that clipped us Tuesday is stalled just to the south, then retrograded back westward by a tropical system that is forecast to develop in the gulf. This would have the potential to draw moisture back westward into our area for anytime between late Thursday and through the weekend. There are also timing differences in the upper trof that comes in out of the northern tier to usher these systems eastward. For now, most ensemble guidance indicates near to slightly below normal temperatures and increased chances for rain. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Conditions are improving only KFOE holding onto to MVFR cigs currently. VFR conditions should return within the next hour or two. The MVFR cloud deck doesn`t move very far east overnight into Monday and may push back west towards KTOP/KFOE given the slight easterly component in the low-levels winds. Maintained VFR for now, but trends will need to be monitored. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Craven AVIATION...Flanagan