Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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602 FXUS63 KTOP 221128 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers early today, diminishing tonight into Monday. - Much cooler today and Monday, near normal temperatures for the mid to late week and mainly dry. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Upper low over western Colorado spilling showers and some thunderstorms across mainly southern and eastern portions of Kansas overnight. Model trends over the past few runs have been for a faster and more positive tilt to the wave as it weakens and pushes east. This keeps precipitation chances more limited with more potential breaks in the cloud as early as today in central Kansas and much of the area by Monday afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue in mainly southern areas early today but a few could linger across east-central Kansas tonight into early Monday until the trough axis exits. Some locations could get another inch of rain but rates should be modest enough to keep flooding in check. The effective cold front should be well south of the area by midday and shift any severe concern out. Have bumped up high temperatures closer the the upper third of guidance today and Monday given the drier trend, but these values are still 20 to 30 degrees colder than Saturday. The next upper trough digs southeast into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes region Monday into Tuesday, though differences in how the southern end of this trough behaves become apparent by Tuesday afternoon. There is increasing agreement in a cutoff low developing nearby which could bring a small chance for light rain around Tuesday. Differences in the upper pattern increase into the late week, at least partially impacted by a potential tropical wave moving north out of the Gulf of Mexico. Dry conditions are more likely than not with temperatures moderating back to late September normals. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Limiting ceilings are common behind the cold front which was approaching TOP and FOE at this writing, however trends have been for a less impactful aviation forecast. Will keep a few hours of IFR at TOP and FOE but VFR conditions should dominate by 21-02Z from west to east with precipitation slowly waning through the early portions of this forecast. There should be enough cloud overnight to keep diurnal BR formation from being an issue. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Poage AVIATION...Poage