560
FXUS63 KTOP 232359
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
659 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and perhaps some thunderstorms Tuesday.

- Rain potential returns late Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The upper-level trough and associated light rain has been slow
to exit the area today. Light showers continue across portions
of far east central Kansas. CLoud cover has also been stubborn
across eastern Kansas. All of this activity will finally exit
later this evening. We should see some brief clearing tonight
before another trough quickly enters the area. A couple vort
maxes will swing through northeast Kansas tonight into tomorrow.
The first one may bring some sprinkles or light showers to the
area (~20% chances) but the better chance of precipitation will
come with a passing cold front late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules
of CAPE should be enough for some thunderstorms to develop with
the passing of the front and dynamic upper-level system.

The next focus turns to this weekend as the remnants of a
tropical system may pivot northwestward near our area. There is
considerable uncertainty as to how far west it will make it and
how progressive the overall pattern will be, but at least
portions of the Midwest and maybe even the central Plains could
see some good rain this weekend. What is more certain is the
temperature profile through the week. A very pleasant week is
expected with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. If skies remain
clear, shallow ground fog may develop near sunrise. However,
mid and high clouds will be moving southeast across the
terminals. A surface front will move southeast across the
terminals late Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms may be possible around the terminals Tuesday
afternoon ahead of the front.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Gargan