757
FXUS63 KTOP 141100
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
600 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong to severe storms possible late tonight and again
Saturday, with the best chances in north-central Kansas.

- Warm temperatures with highs in the 90s continue through early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Yesterday evening`s cold front has moved fully south across the
area, and is now sitting across southeast Kansas. This will keep
temperatures today cooler than yesterday, but without a Aloft,
shortwave ridging will be in place today ahead of a cutoff low
lifting northeast out of the Desert Southwest. Can`t completely rule
out a shower or two this afternoon south of I-70 with isentropic
ascent north of the boundary to our south. However the better
precipitation chances will hold off until overnight. This will occur
as easterly upslope flow over the High Plains develops evening
convection that gradually shifts east across western into central
Kansas. The stronger upper dynamics and low-level jet will both
remain off to the west and northwest, and even across western Kansas
aren`t very impressive. Effective shear is quite weak, on the order
of 15-20 kts. So any complex that does develop out west should be
weakening as it moves into north-central Kansas after midnight.
Can`t rule out some brief gusty winds or small hail with any updraft
that briefly pulses up, given 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but overall the
severe weather risk appears on the low end.

The upper low continues lifting northeast during the day Saturday as
it becomes absorbed into the main flow. WAA and deep mixing ahead of
the system will help temperatures climb into the mid 90s. This will
also help to erode the cap, allowing scattered thunderstorms to
develop mid/late afternoon. Some uncertainty as to where and how
many storms develop, though the better dynamics would favor
north- central Kansas again. With around 30 kts of shear and
3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, the overall environment is favorable for a
few strong to severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds would
be the main hazards.

Sunday into early Tuesday look drier but still plenty hot, as strong
ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. High probability (over 90%)
that temperatures will be over 90 each day, with heat indices
approaching 100 at times. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, a
deepening western trough will push a frontal boundary southeast
across the central Plains. Differences exist in guidance in how
strong and far east this front will be, as the anomalous ridging to
the east will keep the western trough from moving too far east.
Regardless, moisture transport ahead of the boundary will
increase precipitation chances for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Generally easterly winds around 7-10 kts will continue through the
period, along with VFR ceilings. Can`t rule out a shower or storm,
mainly after midnight tonight, but the better chances for this will
stay northwest of KMHK.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese