332
FXUS63 KTOP 150523
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1223 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Thunderstorms approach the area from the west tonight. Best
 chances for storms will be across northern KS and a few storms
 could be strong to severe.

-Widely scattered storms could impact the area again tomorrow
 afternoon. Damaging wind appears to the be main threat.

-Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend and
 early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Early this afternoon, the air mass over the area has become
increasingly buoyant with a steady increase in temps and dew points
into midday. A lingering, but fairly diffuse, surface boundary from
yesterday`s system appears to remain positioned just south of the
forecast area. For this afternoon, have a low chance (10-15%) for
isolated storms south of I-70 due to some isentropic ascent
occurring near the boundary. Looking at a wider view across the
CONUS, showers and storms were ongoing across much of the High
Plains well ahead of a mid-level wave near the Four Corners. More
robust convection is expected to develop over portions of eastern
Colorado and western Kansas this evening as the mid-level wave
advances northeast. Thunderstorm activity will move east into
central Kansas late this evening and tonight. Forecast soundings
around north-central Kansas show around 2500 J/kg of elevated
instability ahead of the storms, but weak deep layer shear. Better
forcing will also remain just west and north of the area, closer to
the trough axis that will remain west of the area. Most CAMs agree
on storms moving northeast across north-central and far northern
Kansas overnight with decreasing chances with further southward
extent. The main threat from storms will be damaging wind gusts.

Thunderstorms could occur again tomorrow afternoon as the mid-level
trough axis moves into central KS. Stronger low level southerly flow
will push the lingering surface boundary to the north as a warm
front. A similar environment will be in place, with ample amounts of
instability but weaker directional and speed shear through the mid
levels. Forcing, however, should be a little stronger with the
approach of the upper trough axis. Am thinking that widely scattered
storms could develop during the late afternoon or early evening
hours. Strong winds will again be the main concern, especially with
DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. Instability and forcing will wane
during the overnight hours which should decrease the coverage and
intensity of any storms that developed previously.

High heat and humidity are expected to continue late this weekend
and early next week with strong southerly flow dominating our low
level pattern. Aloft, a more amplified pattern will evolve across
the country as an expansive ridge builds over the eastern US and
troughing occurs out west. A strong cold front looks to approach the
area late Tuesday as a wave in the southwestern mid-level flow moves
into southern Canada. Convergence along the front looks strong
enough to warrant an increase in POPs, especially in north-central
and northern KS, even with a lack of better upper level support. A
drop in temps could occur if that front is able to move southward
into east-central KS. Otherwise, typical summer like heat is
expected as we approach the solstice.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Current line of sub-severe convection over central Kansas will
gradually push east over the next few hours. Better confidence that
this line will clip KMHK around 09z, with less confidence in seeing
thunderstorms near KTOP/KFOE. Once this round moves out, scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible during the afternoon but again
with low confidence in exact timing/location. Otherwise, ceilings
are expected to remain VFR with ESE winds becoming southerly
10-15 kts by around mid-day.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Reese