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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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394 FXUS63 KTOP 222338 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms, some severe, are possible through early evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main hazard. - After a brief reprieve from the high humidity Sunday, heat indices from 105 to 110 are expected Monday and Tuesday afternoons. - Cooler temps and late evening storm chances return midweek onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Water vapor imagery this afternoon highlights the upper ridge anchored over the southern plains while weak southwesterly flow and an embedded shortwave trough push eastward through the northern plains. Current analysis shows the frontal boundary entering north central portions of the CWA while a mostly uncapped upstream environment has sfc CAPE values exceeding 3000 J/KG at the current hour. Limiting factors for more widespread storm development are the poor midlevel lapse rates and lack of strong convergence along the boundary. Nevertheless, CAMs are persistent in widely scattered convection developing in the 4-5 PM time frame, pushing southeast along the front through early evening. Steep low level lapse rates, effective shear values less 30 kts, and DCAPE approaching 1500 J/KG signals damaging wind gusts from collapsing storms being the primary hazard. There is a lower possibility for hail and would only be confined to cells that maintain a strong updraft. Winds weaken from the north tonight behind the front with a low possibility for valley fog to develop around sunrise. With the temp/dewpoint depressions around 3F and possibility for winds to stay up near 5 mph, confidence was not high for mention in the forecast. Sfc ridge axis crosses through the region Sunday, bringing slightly cooler and less humid conditions with highs in the low 90s in the afternoon. Unfortunately this is short lived as southerly sfc flow returns Monday, as the region wedges between the midlevel ridge to the south and the northern stream jet. Heat indices up to 110 are likely Monday, while Tuesday`s indices approach 107 potentially as dewpoints rise back into the lower 70s. Heat headlines are anticipated for early next week. Both ensembles from GFS/ECMWF are advertising an embedded shortwave trough making its way southeast Monday evening into Tuesday, bringing storm chances through the day Tuesday. This would remove the excessive heat concern, highly dependent upon the timing of the wave, looking to be closer to the Tuesday evening period. Upper ridge axis shifts to the east by Wednesday, causing more uncertainty in where overnight MCSs track - from Nebraska to possibly northern Kansas each evening through Saturday morning. A stronger, cold front may track through the region by Friday evening, providing much needed heat relief next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Isolated thunderstorm activity remains possible at TOP and FOE for the next hour or two before a cold front moves through. Given sparse nature of convection so far and little cloud development upstream, have removed TS mention however. North- northwest winds behind the front veer to the southeast late in this forecast. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Poage