796
FXUS64 KTSA 231119
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mostly westward expansion of the upper ridge will continue today,
and will result in slightly warmer temps and a small increase in
relative humidity. Many areas across E OK and WC AR will see max
HI values of 105 or greater today. Only change to the current NPW
will be to add Okfuskee county. Otherwise the current Heat
Advisory configuration and duration look good.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Little change in the upper pattern is expected Monday, with
afternoon temps and heat indices likely to rival those that
will be seen today. Will let the next shift assess headline
requirements for Monday. The upper flow turns more northwesterly
Tuesday as the ridge centers over the SW CONUS, but once more hot
temperatures can be expected. Upper wave along with an approaching
surface boundary will increase chances for showers and storms,
mainly Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Depending on boundary
proximity and coverage of rain Wednesday, some locations may see
slightly cooler high temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This will
be short lived as the upper ridge builds back over the plains
later this week. Next weekend, slightly better mid level flow
just to the north may allow for some shower and storms to brush
parts of NE OK Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast
period. Scattered showers have developed this morning in parts of
E-Central OK and W-Central AR. Expect this activity to gradually
shift south this morning before dissipating. Additional isolated
showers may develop later this afternoon (highest potential near
FSM). Otherwise, a mix of mid and high clouds will prevail
areawide with light sfc winds (<10 kts).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  78 100  78 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  76 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   97  73 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   95  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   95  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   97  77  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10   98  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   95  76  95  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...43