Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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225 FXUS64 KTSA 221903 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Thru Tonight) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Another hot and humid day is ongoing beneath ridging aloft. The breezy southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front across KS may be helping with the heat. As this boundary approaches the KS state line later this evening, it could set off a few showers or maybe a storm. Hard to believe with 90s over 70s, but instability is weak per balmy H5 temps around -3C so the atmosphere over NE OK isn`t exactly dying to convect. Per latest CAM runs will keep mentionable PoPs out of the forecast area. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop south over the forecast area on Sunday. This will allow afternoon high temps to climb to near the century mark for the first time in 2024 in several areas along/near the Arkansas River valley with at least upper 90s for nearby areas of east-central and northeast OK. The weak front from this evening will sink south and stall over the area on Sunday, but will not provide any cooling and may just make things worse as moisture pools along the boundary. The heat and humidity will push afternoon heat indices to advisory levels and have thus issued a heat advisory for Sunday afternoon. Data suggests some potential for isolated showers and storms over western AR and neighboring far eastern OK, so some low mentionable PoPs were added. I wouldn`t hold my breath though. Low level thermal fields remain toasty on Monday and Tuesday, so expect more heat headlines. The trend in the data for the front and associated shower/storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday has been toward less aggressive in both PoPs and temps. There may not be much relief from the heat from this system. The mid-level ridge shifts west only briefly, and quickly rebuilds back overhead. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR anticipated to prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Breezy/gusty southwest winds will subside by or just after sunset this evening, with gusts 20-25 knots. A weak cold front will approach from the north overnight tonight or early Sunday morning. An isolated shower/storm or two cannot be ruled out along or near the OK/KS border in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, but chances are too low to include in TAFs. Winds will shift more WNW to N behind the boundary by sunrise at NE OK and far NW AR terminals. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 80 99 79 100 / 10 10 0 0 FSM 78 99 78 100 / 0 10 0 10 MLC 76 97 76 97 / 0 10 0 0 BVO 75 98 72 100 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 74 96 72 97 / 10 10 0 10 BYV 76 94 73 97 / 10 10 0 10 MKO 78 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 76 94 75 97 / 10 10 0 10 F10 77 97 76 97 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 74 96 75 97 / 0 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>057- 059>062-064-066-067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...67