130
FXUS64 KTSA 161914
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Another warm afternoon, although heat indices are a little lower
compared to the last few days. A few mid/high clouds are moving
across eastern Oklahoma with approaching MCV from earlier
convection, but otherwise no other impact. An isolated shower or
two may develop across northwest Arkansas this afternoon, but
coverage will be very limited at best. Mild conditions expected
overnight with light south winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Several of the CAMS suggest a broken line of showers/thunderstorms
will begin to propagate northward from the Gulf during the day
Monday. There is a slight chance (20 percent) some of this
activity could move into far southeast Oklahoma by late afternoon
or early evening, but more likely will begin to dissipate.
Regardless, increasing low level moisture, coupled with strong
afternoon heating, may allow for a few isolated storms to develop
across far SE OK/NW AR. Overall coverage again will likely remain
limited. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal
with heat indices approaching triple digits in some locations.

Slightly cooler conditions are expected during the Tuesday-Thursday
time frame as winds become more easterly. Increasing high clouds
are also expected from tropical system, which is forecast to move
westward across south Texas. Rain chances will remain low, and
again be confined to far southeast Oklahoma on Wednesday.

Warming trend returns late week into the early part of next weekend
as upper ridge builds back over the southern Plains. A weak frontal
boundary may approach from the north on Sunday and therefore kept
slight chance NBM PoPs for NE OK/NW AR.

Parts of northeast Oklahoma have received little rainfall over the
past two weeks and with no significant rain forecast through the
extended period and potentially beyond, abnormally dry conditions
may become a concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR TAF elements will prevail at all sites through the
valid period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  93  75  91 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   75  92  75  90 /   0  20   0  20
MLC   73  90  73  89 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   71  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   71  89  70  87 /   0  20   0  20
BYV   72  90  71  88 /   0  20   0  20
MKO   73  90  74  89 /   0   0   0  10
MIO   73  91  73  89 /   0  10   0   0
F10   73  90  73  89 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  88  71  87 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23